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Probability of 15 HCP
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The apriori chance of being dealt 15 HCP is 4.4%, but if partner is known to have 17 HCP then it decreases to 2.74%.

By contrast the apriory chance of a pair having 32 HCP is only 0.32%.

So let's see what might happen if you deal 17 HCP to N with the hand : 32-AKQ4-AKJ5-678. Use the "Play Bridge Hands Generator"

and note how maany HCP S will have.

To be continued due to computer malfunction

One would need a much larger sample to establish some kind of frequency curve, which will be a right skewed type.

I lack any aility to do that kind of work, so I wonder if there is a numbers freak amongst the reaers who would care to tes a least 100 000 deals.

by computer simulation.

Feel free to contact me at : stigfjorden@hotmail.com

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