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To finesse or drop

This hand came up in a BBO challenge:

North
QJ9643
103
52
A94
South
A1072
AK72
J3
Q105
W
N
E
S
2
P
4
P
P
P

Opening lead: J covered by Q, K and A. If you next play a spade, E will follow with a small one.

Since the play is for IMPs we want to secure the contract as much as possible. The contract could go down if the J was a singleton, so we should cater for that situation. If we finesse spades then we lose in the case of singleton K with West, since he will then give a ruff. The safety play for this would be to play Q and overtake with A, the winning play for all 2-1 distributions. But if spades are distributed 0-3 then we will give up the second spade, they will cross to W with diamonds and give a club ruff. So what should we do: finesse or play for a drop?

For both there is only one losing case, but is one of them more likely? If we assume that clubs are 6-1 then will the vacant spaces in E hand make 0-3 more probable?

 

Finesse
Drop
Other (post in comments)

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