This hand came up in a BBO challenge:
Opening lead: ♣J covered by ♣Q, ♣K and ♣A. If you next play a spade, E will follow with a small one.
Since the play is for IMPs we want to secure the contract as much as possible. The contract could go down if the ♣J was a singleton, so we should cater for that situation. If we finesse spades then we lose in the case of singleton ♠K with West, since he will then give a ruff. The safety play for this would be to play ♠Q and overtake with ♠A, the winning play for all 2-1 distributions. But if spades are distributed 0-3 then we will give up the second spade, they will cross to W with diamonds and give a club ruff. So what should we do: finesse or play for a drop?
For both there is only one losing case, but is one of them more likely? If we assume that clubs are 6-1 then will the vacant spaces in E hand make 0-3 more probable?
Plus... it's free!