Assuming you are always going to get a ♦ lead, then Bernie is probably right for the two jacks case. For the three jacks case, I make the odds 96% off the ♣J, 100% off the ♦J, 90% off the ♥J, and 36% off the ♠J (ignoring partner having the ...
Spades - there are 84 possible holdings for him, 28 have the Jack (1/3).
Hearts - there are 7 possible heart holdings for him, one has the J (1/7)
Diamonds - there are 21 possible diamond holdings for him, 6 have the Jack (2/7).
Clubs - there are 8 possible club ...
I disagree with the ♥ shift.
There is no reasonable construction where partner does not have all the missing diamonds. South would hardly have taken the push to the 5-level with two losers there.
And hearts is the "obvious" shift - if partner wants a heart shift, all he has to ...
Here's a situation analogous to Peg's problem. It's the first board of a 9 AM knockout. You deal, and pick up AQ10x.KQx.J10xx.Kx. You open 1NT, and fold your hand up as is your normal custom. Partner bids 2H, a transfer to spades. You now ...
Congratulations to all of you guys. Knock them dead in Veldhoven. I know I'm getting old when I know as many fathers/stepfathers as I do players on the team.
Didn't you count the tricks wrong, Stefan? At the point where W leads to trick 10, according to your description, the defenders have taken the ♣A and ♠KJ. So losing two heart tricks is fatal. Since the heart return was forced, the focus must be on how to avoid ...
It's interesting to note also that 6H NS is frigid except on a club lead. On, say, a high spade and a diamond switch, South wins, takes the same first round ♥ finesse, hooks again (managing the spots so the lead remains in S if W does not cover ...
There's also a possibility that the ♦ are blocked, with LHO having five to the 8 and RHO QJ9 tripleton. This is highly unlikely, since LHO would likely have led the ♦8.
Also, I think the location of the ♣Q has no bearing on whether LHO would falsecard. In ...