Condolences to the Wei team. They were fierce competitors, tough opponents, and played fantastically both in our match and throughout the event; the match could have easily gone the other way. Very empathetic to them, having been in a similar (albeit less dramatic) position in the USA2 final four years ...
I mention the first two because they both act to decrease the win probability by approximately a factor of two (exactly a factor of two for item (2)) which, from a decision theory perspective, can be critical for end user decision making.
I put the comment about n vs. n-1 ...
Dave,
Two comments, accepting all of your other assumptions:
1) The two-sided area within 3 standard deviations of a normal distribution is a bit over 0.997, not 0.990...the third decimal being significant when you're talking about probabilities in the tail.
2) Your probabilities correspond to two-sided ...
Thanks for all your work on this- it is much appreciated.
On the ACBL Mid-Chart, it is currently legal to, by partnership agreement, be permitted to open a Multi 2♦ with 5M(332) pattern and a below average strength hand.
It seems that since this agreement does not show ...
Michael,
I reread the claim statement provided by the OP again. What specifically in the wording convinces you that declarer will play ♠ first? While I agree that my conviction that declarer would play ♦ first was somewhat unfounded, it certainly doesn't seem precluded. There are 'conflicting' things, neither ...
Being the only person that voted -3, I must be missing something?
I'm supposing based on the claim statement that declarer plays the ♥A, tests ♦, then cash ♠ from the top. Testing ♦ certainly does not require playing three rounds, and there are certainly reasons not to play ...
Reading the Savchenko-Katz appeal write-up raises several issues which I have previously found, and continue to find, rather troubling.
First, procedural penalties (PPs) are, in my experience, applied extremely inconsistently. People frequently complain about slow play in NABC+ events, but PPs are very seldom assigned except for in “fast” events ...
Debbie,
This is one thing ACBL Live has actually helped (though still far from perfect). Many of the missing results can be centrally obtained by going to http://live.acbl.org/ and clicking on the "GNT/NAP Results" button. It's still not exhaustive, but it helps.