Join Bridge Winners

Bridge Winners Profile for Griff Ware

Griff Ware
Griff Ware
  • 0
    Following
  • 3
    Followers
  • 0
    Posts
  • 0
    Favorites

Basic Information

Member Since
Oct. 30, 2013
Last Seen
Nov. 7, 2013
Member Type
Bridge Player
about me

Australian ex-youth player.

Country
Australia

Bridge Information

ACBL Ranking
None
Sorry, this user has no cards yet.
Michael Wilkinson's bidding problem: 73 Q9 A543 Q8532
Hi Bruce, we are in complete agreement as regards the mathematics behind the situation and my calculations agree with yours. However, it is your rounding of 98% to 100% (for the chance that 6 will make) and my use of 70% instead of 66.6% (for the chance that grand ...
Michael Wilkinson's bidding problem: 73 Q9 A543 Q8532
Regarding the message 6NT conveys, in combo with the fact it's an excellent spot with negligible change in prospects compared to 6, yes I think 6NT is a great choice. I would now rate 7 = 6NT > 6 > 6, but all of them are actually very ...
Michael Wilkinson's bidding problem: 73 Q9 A543 Q8532
If you exclude 1714 from the sim then the chance of grand making will go down by a bit. I haven't done it but I'm guessing you'll lose about 5 percentage points. However, on the filpside, if you allow x70y shapes, then the chance of grand making ...
Michael Wilkinson's bidding problem: 73 Q9 A543 Q8532
Hi Michael, I'm not sure how you arrived at the conclusion that Axx is more likely than AKx, but independent simulations below suggest otherwise. And I can also show some theoretical calculations: I make the assumption that we know 11 of partner's cards (A, 7 , 1 ...
Michael Wilkinson's bidding problem: 73 Q9 A543 Q8532
Michael, yes, but as a counterbalance a 4-0 break might beat 6NT but not 6 (particularly on a diamond lead). So it's much of a muchness I think. Bruce, my long analysis below suggests that, actually, even if there is a 40% chance the opponents will stop ...
Michael Wilkinson's bidding problem: 73 Q9 A543 Q8532
The question of course now becomes: how good are the double dummy results as an approximation of what would actually happen on a given deal at the table? (1) Declarer will in practice fail on some 4-0 breaks that could be picked up double dummy. This will be true ...
Michael Wilkinson's bidding problem: 73 Q9 A543 Q8532
With all that said, I'm going to base my decision about what to bid on the claim that 7 is the most likely grand to make in practice, and that its actual chance of making is at least 70%. With that figure and the various other contracts' chances ...
Michael Wilkinson's bidding problem: 73 Q9 A543 Q8532
Disclaimer: I held the hand at the table and chose to bid 7, so I have an interest in showing that it was a reasonable choice. However, since we won the match, despite losing 13 IMPs on this board vs game at the other table, I'm not completely ...
Michael Wilkinson's bidding problem: 73 Q9 A543 Q8532
I would suggest that 6 can only be a "do you have something extra?" last-train asking bid, and that in this context something extra can only reasonably be interpreted as either an 8th or the Q. The first of these make grand a very good prospect, while the ...
Michael Wilkinson's bidding problem: 73 Q9 A543 Q8532
Gary, while I accept that your partnerships (and many others) would not choose the same start to the auction - and that there are many other good treatments available - you are certainly not being respectful in the manner in which you suggest that the 4 rebid is "losing bridge". Perhaps ...
Not following anyone yet
.

Bottom Home Top