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- Aug. 18, 2012
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- 7 hours ago
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- Bridge Player

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- Google Knows Bridge
- Around 1975 I wanted to generate deals for bidding practice during the forthcoming summer. I had access to a Honeywell H-316 computer with 16K of memory which could be programmed in FORTRAN using punched tape. The problem was that I didn't have a random number generator, but then I ...
- Zia would know what to do
- Yes, that's the main advantage of trying the drop when spades are 4-4. When they are 5-3, the entry is not needed for a heart finesse.
- Zia would know what to do
- That I did above: "I think we can assume leader to have one of the distributions 4=4=4=1, 4=4=3=2, 4=4=2=3, 4=3=4=2, 4=3=3=3, 4=2=4=3. A priori, they occur in the ratios 15 : 30 : 18 ...
- More ACBL Stuff
- Yes, that adds C(5,1)xC13,7) hands for the finesse, which changes the ratio to 8:5 in favor of the drop. Playing ♦A, four clubs, then spades also preserves some minor squeeze possibilities. Edit: ♠Jxx also has to be added, which makes the ratio 8:9 in ...
- More ACBL Stuff
- After the hearts, I think there are about C(6,3)xC(13,6) hands with spades 3-3 and about C(5,3)xC(13,5) hands with East having ♠Jxxx. That's a ratio 8:3 in favor of the drop.
- Zia would know what to do
- Not really relevant. If clubs are 3-2, and South has 3 with probability p, the ♣Q is onside with probability p(3/5) + (1-p)(2/5) = p/5 + 2/5. p=1/3 gives 7/15, p=2/3 gives 8/15. in both cases the drop is 2/5 ...
- Zia would know what to do
- I did not discount spades 5-3. My analysis showed (or at least indicated) that this 4th best lead would have to be the lowest from three or five cards with well over 50 % probability for anything substantial to change.
- Zia would know what to do
- 2/5 + (3/5)(1/2) = 7/10. Clarification: club distributions 5-0 and 4-1 are not considered because of North's assumed distribution. Singleton ♣10 is a very small possibility.
- Zia would know what to do
- Of course, one would like to be able to estimate the probabilities at the table. If clubs are 3-2, the ♣Q will drop with probability 2/5. If that does not happen, the ♥Q is with South about 50 % of the time, which gives the overall probability 70 % for plan ...
- Zia would know what to do
- If the lead is 4th best, and assuming leader would not play the ♣10 from a four-card suit, I think we can assume leader to have one of the distributions 4=4=4=1, 4=4=3=2, 4=4=2=3, 4=3=4=2, 4=3=3=3 ...

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