I'll pick Netherlands. Italy plays very well against everyone,
but in round robins they have consistently defeated the bottom
teams by wider margins than their competition. In this tournament,
results versus non-qualifiers do not count.
The problem with a 4S bid by opener over 4H is that neither
partner will know it's a 43 fit so they will stay there
when 5 of a minor is much better. I think opener's DBL
is correct and responder should remove to 4S.