I am a full time professional player, and have been so since 2004 (before that, I was semi-professional). I play in all the Nationals, a few Regionals, and do a little online teaching.
My wife Debbie is also a full-time professional. We have a son, Kevin. I have two daughters, Ivana and Jahna, from a previous marriage
Favorite Bridge Memory
Winning the 1994 Rosenblum
Winner of Rosenblum, 1998 Par Contest, 4 US Trials, Spingold(2), Vanderbilt(2), Reisinger(2), More
3N on these auctions with (say)Jx is only a consideration (for me) if I have no other choice. That would usually be over their 3-of-a-Major.
Also, 3N is more attractive against non-vul opponents, who are more likely to have a poor suit.
When East doubled 3♠ he was taking a big chance - that his partner might underlead the ♠A (hoping for Kx). Would he take this chance with the ♣A in his hand? Doubtful. Combine that with the fact of West's vulnerable weak two on a king high suit and ...
if you have a hand such as x, ---, KJxxxx, KQxxxx you have no reasonable call over 1♠(4♥). Not close to 5N. and both double and pass are, in my opinion, favorites to lead to disaster.
All you can do is guess at 5 of a minor ...
4N for minors (in addition to the advantages provided by slam try in diamonds and an additional slam try in spades) would be bid on any appropriate 6-5 or 6-6 hands. It would also be bid on some appropriate 5-5 hands.
If I wanted to bid 4N natural, but am ...
Since the question was "should be" I feel confident that the answer is "Other."
KC Blackwood is a very narrow target. You should already have 3 slam tries (5♥, 5♠ and another we shall see). If you get dealt a perfect KC hand, boo-hoo.
To say that you ...
It's a LOT easier to read a long article and pick on the thing(s) that are 'wrong' than it it is to write a totally unflawed long article (almost impossible).
I find the ratio of correct (and interesting) things in this article (and every article you have written ...
I wouldn't be surprised if your number (1) came close to approaching eqivalence - to be "close", it would have to be some some fraction of a trick, though I wouldn't know how to quantify what "small" means.
You are correct that it is (2) I feel strongly ...
I just do not believe that if you take a thousand, or a million or even a billion hands, and discover that what actually happened at the table ON AVERAGE was close to what a DD simulation would have predicted, that you have really learned anything.
Every hand is different ...