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Bridge Winners Profile for Paul Hightower

Paul Hightower
Paul Hightower
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Basic Information

Member Since
June 28, 2016
Last Seen
5 hours ago
Member Type
Bridge Player
about me

Good club player, can't afford travel or tournaments. Long time contributor at rec.games.bridge.

Country
United States of America

Bridge Information

ACBL Ranking
Non Life Master
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Board 24 from the 05/25/2018 Common Game
Did anyone have a good 2/1 sequence to reach the grand here? +1010 scored well at the club and nationwide, so you'd want to be careful. Perhaps: 1-2 3-3 East wants to insist on hearts with the solid suit 5-6 Exclusion RKCB ...
Sam Ehrlichman's bidding problem: Q KT53 K873 Q942
I don't want to land in four or five of a minor on this Aceless Wonder. I'd rather assume we have a combined spade stopper or two. As a general rule, I want an extra trick or at least half-trick before introducing minor suits over notrump. For example ...
Jyri Tamminen's bidding problem: AJ42 64 K7432 54
Double shows one or both majors, and the ability to handle a rebid of 2 of any suit. Here we can correct a heart rebid to diamonds.
For your consideration: Are Bridge and Baseball facing similar problems appealing to youth?
I don't know exactly what kind of problem baseball is facing. In every single major league market, local baseball broadcasts clobber every other program on television. The money flowing into baseball is stupendous. Perhaps this won't be true in forty years. Right now, we wish we had baseball ...
Downgrades?
@Doug: I'm surprised. I'm also surprised at the variation from Craig's results. Assuming his sample size was 10000 for Eric's hand (as he stated for the random 14 and 15 point hands) I would use a confidence interval of about + or - 1% for his results and ...
Downgrades?
@Craig: What we care about are at the table results -- specifically, for most of this discussion, what are our chances to make 3NT against typical defense? We know that real-life declarers average a few percent better at 3NT than DD would predict; at the slam level, DD outperforms real-life declarers ...
Downgrades?
@Craig: You are comparing apples to fruit, since Eric's four Queens hand benefits from the DD bias in favor of flat hands, while most of the balanced 14's and 15's do not. Try comparing to random 4333 14's and 15's.
Downgrades?
Very good, Rainer, now what happens if the opening lead is not double-dummy?
Downgrades?
Sorry, Craig, but the fact that the differences between DD and ATT results averages 3 to 4% does not make that a valid adjustment for specific hands. Most of the declarer advantage is specifically from inferior leads -- which is why DD punishes weak doubletons so much, and turns the disadvantage ...
Downgrades?
Tomasz, the 3% referred to the probability of making 3NT, not the number of tricks. To estimate a margin of error on number of tricks, we need the standard deviation of the sample. This is basic statistics stuff -- there is no sample size where one can say a sample result ...
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