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Bridge Winners Profile for Roland Voigt

Roland Voigt
Roland Voigt
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Member Since
April 11, 2015
Last Seen
2 minutes ago
Member Type
Bridge Player
Country
Germany

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Heitor Paoli Barbosa's bidding problem: xx AJ9 9xx AKxxx
It would be good to know what the systemic implications of partner's 2 rebid are.
The Fallacy of Restricted Choice
Correction: There are no attempts to predict how often a player will play the one or the other honor when holding both; there are only conclusions about the odds of success for different lines [i]if this data is already given[/i]. In mathematics, there is a fundamental difference between ...
The Fallacy of Restricted Choice
If you are curious how East's strategy with QJ tight affects the odds, here are the results of a simulation where East plays the jack with 90% chance and the queen with only 10% chance (the other parameters are the same): [i] Total deals: 1000000 Relevant situation (stiff spade ...
The Fallacy of Restricted Choice
I happened to have a basic simulator at hand, so I conducted the experiment suggested by some of you above. The parameters of the simulation were these: A million deals were generated. In each deal, the North and South hand were fixed, according to Robson's example from the OP ...
The Fallacy of Restricted Choice
If I may, there is a rather elementary mistake in Anthony's exposition. Right after the diagram where KQ are missing and the finesse loses to the queen, he observes that two cases remain, and he writes: "So the finesse wins once and loses once." Sloppy language. The finesse wins ...
The Fallacy of Restricted Choice
Exactly my point. The opponents are dealt 26 cards, not 22.
The Fallacy of Restricted Choice
In case you really intend to play this out, just be sure to follow the original conditions. I mean, no reshuffling the cards in the middle of the hand, pretending it makes no difference - this is where people usually screw up when talking about probabilities, and in particular it is ...
Thoughts wanted on defensive carding
I'm pretty sure we are talking about different things here. Of course different signalling methods can apply to different situations in play. But in a specific situation - such as trick one in the OP hand - the meaning of the signal cannot change just because you'd like to signal ...
Thoughts wanted on defensive carding
This may well be. But whatever meaning you pick, you must agree on it in advance; you cannot change it on the spot because you feel a different meaning is more helpful in a particular hand. The point I am trying to make is that, if one signal denies an ...
Thoughts wanted on defensive carding
I disagree. In my opinion, either both possible signals are information, or they are both decision. If you play signals as "information", the 2 shows a diamond honor, and the 8 denies one (which means that, according to the partnership's methods, the 8 is the only correct signal). If ...
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