If East plays a low card, there is a chance you can take 3 tricks.
If East plays the Jack, there is a chance you can take 3 tricks.
If East plays the King, there is a chance you can take 3 tricks.
No matter what card East plays, there ...
What the right card to play isn't the point of this thread (and it made no difference in the actual hand).
It's about what the meaning is (for next time when it does make a difference); so it very much matters.
For those voting for normal suit preference, what would happen if the red suits were all reversed? Would you play the 3, hoping partner didn't read that as suit preference for clubs?
Thus the reason I included an 'other suit preference' option - wondering if there was a way to ...
Sorry, yes, meant redouble - fixed now.
I can't seem to create a multiple-answer poll. If I included redouble, you would not have been able to answer. Here you can; of the bids provided, you only play 2NT as described.
Yeah, I knew some people would have more than one stronger raise, but wasn't confident in covering/knowing all of the options people use.
So I tried to go with wording which would still allow you to answer ("which of these shows", rather than "what would you bid").
OK, in that case, ignore double dummy analysis, and build the information leakage into the calculations.
If I bid 4♠, it will make a% of the time.
If I bid 3♣, I will end up in game b% of the time, and in those cases, make c% of ...