Join Bridge Winners
A Conjecture

Let's begin with a hand. There are two passes to you and you are looking at S.K3 H.Q3 D.AQ98 C.KJT82 (I call this a 5422 hand). I wouldn't be too surprised if partner had a 5-card major suit or even two 4-card majors. Nevertheless, I would feel the urge to open 1NT knowing partner might take a dim view when things didn't go well.

My conjecture is twofold (1) it is ever so slightly odds-on that with a 5422 hand, one of the partnerships has a combined 9+ card suit and (2) the opponents are slightly more likely to have a 9+ card suit than we are.

If I were up to the task of simulating, I would program about 15000 random deals under the constraint that one of the hands necessarily had 5422 suit distribution. Does anyone have the know-how and want to check if I am on or off-track?

if correct, Item #2 catches my eye. Is this odds-on situation worth figuring into my bidding methods? To what extent should my opponent's defensive bidding strategy influence my choice to risk opening 1NT on certain 5422 hands?

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