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Calling all quants: the NAP prediction challenge

or non-quants for that matter. The challenge is to predict the order of finish of NAP flights A and B next month.

The players in the North American Pairs are known ahead of time (by and large). This provides a unique opportunity to test out ratings/predictions metrics for bridge.

What you need to do?

  • Message me; then I'll send you thedatasetsand some details
  • Send me your predictions - an ordered list of the potential entrants - before midnight of Sunday March 8th.
How will results be judged?
  • In short: not yet finalized
  • Two metrics will be used: 1) a simple metric of how many of the Day 2 qualifiers were predicted and 2) a more rigorous statistical metric - likely a weighted correlation coefficient that values predicting the top finishers. I welcome input on the metrics; I'll announce the method to be used PRIOR to the NAP events.
What do I win?
  • The esteem and wonderment of your peers
  • I will not publish and am not interested in the names of people who don't qualify. This challenge is about numbers not denigrating people.
  • I am playing in flight B, but I promise not to dump in the competition in order to win the NAP prediction challenge ;)
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