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Chances of Winning a 60 or 64 board match:

Does anyone know what the standard deviation of imps per hand is? If team A is .25 imps per board better than team B, it should win a 60 board match by an average of 15 imps or a 64 board match by an average of 16 imps. If the standard deviation is low, then it should win a relatively high percentage of its matches. As the standard deviation increases, its winning percentage would drop.

Even teams that might rate to win .5 imps per board lose regularly, and we think of it as a big upset. I suspect the standard deviation per hand is somewhat higher than people think, especially when pairs use radically different methods, and thus ‘big upsets’ should not be so surprising.  Knowing the standard deviation would also help determine how much more often a better team will win a longer match. 

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