so you are holding a weak response (say 5-bad 10) with 2=3 in majors and hear the very common 1S-1NT(you)-2H-? We all know that on average the 5-2 plays a bit better than the 4-3 (about 0.2 tricks according to two prominent experts). As I understand it , it is common to complete the false preference with a hand that could welcome another bid (say roughly 8-10) and Pass 2H to stop the auction in its tracks with a junkpile (say roughly 5-7). Another factor is that you gain more by passing when partner actually has 5 hearts. Counter to that is the case where partner actually has 6-4 majors( and spades is heavily preferred). I believe the odds for 5-4/5-5/6-4 are 65:20:15. Has anyone done simulations on expected gains here? Is the 5-7/8-10 split OK, perhaps 5-6/7-10 is better? (And we know that in 2H you will usually get a heart lead!)Any modeling pundits who can shed more light? Thanks.
Benefits include:
Plus... it's free!