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Compound Restricted Choice Problem

Yesterday, I opened 1NT and played it there.  In dummy I found K87x of spades, in my hand were 96xx.  That left the defenders with AQJTx.  Obviously, I wanted to win two spade tricks.  On the first spade, I led low toward dummy, LHO played the small spade, I ducked, and RHO won the Ten.  My first thought is that RHO might have held one, two, or all three of the missing minor honors (QJT), with relative likelihood of 1 : 1/2 : 1/3, meaning that he was 6-5 to have played the Ten because it was the only one of those cards he'd held.  That meant in turn that, from his relevant holdings (those on which I could actually win two tricks - AT, QT, JT, QJT), the AT combination was 55% of those holdings, meaning that I should duck the King again on the second spade trick.  Of course, I'd get to see another card from LHO before I had to decide.

When I regained the lead, I played another small spade toward dummy, and LHO played the Jack.  Her relevant holdings were then (an original) AJx or QJx, with the AJx twice as likely as the QJx, meaning that I should rise with the King.

But wait, thinking back to the first trick, the matching holdings from RHO had then been AT or QT, with the AT being twice as likely, telling me to duck again.

On the other hand, it might not have been apparent to RHO that his QT were actually equals when he had to choose one, so maybe his choice was restricted to the Ten either way, in other words restricted choice did not apply to the first trick, so rising with the King is indicated (by LHO's play).

But what if RHO had played the Jack to the first trick, which would have been clearly equal to either the Ten or Queen, now restricted choice would again have applied to him, so maybe I should duck after all.

Finally, with both opponents having been potentially restricted in their choices of which minor honor to play from two, maybe the two choices cancel each other out, and it is a tossup whether to rise with the King, or duck.

What do you think?, and this time I really don't know.

Maybe I should have played bingo.  Of course, I don't understand that game either, in the sense that I don't understand how anyone over the age of seven could possibly find it interesting.

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