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How do you defend?

I'm posing this question because it bears on an article I'm working on. I'm not at all sure what the consensus will be.

Suppose you are defending a deal with your regular partner. You see a line of defense (A) that will work 100% of the time provided partner defends correctly. You see an alternative line of defense (B) that will work 90% of the time and that requires nothing from partner except that he follow suit. If you choose (A), partner's correct defense is not routine, but he should find it. Based on years of experience with this partner, you judge that he will find the correct defense four times out of five.

A pragmatist might argue that line (A), in your own judgment, will work only 80% of the time. Therefore, line (B) has the higher expected value, and that is the line you should choose. I suspect, however, that many players would choose line (A) anyway, perhaps because they find betting on partner to fail unpalatable.

Which line do you think you should choose?

Line A
Line B

Sorry, to answer polls. Registered users can vote in polls, and can also browse other users' public votes! and participate in the discussion.

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