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I Should Have Made 6NT, Right?

Upstate
AJ86
K1052
AQ106
7
Mbtinsley
KQ92
Q4
KJ943
92
Rhcarle
75
A8
75
AKQJ1043
Gsquare
1043
J9763
82
865
W
N
E
S
1
P
2
P
2NT
P
3
P
3NT
P
6NT
P
P
P
D
24
6NT West
NS: 0 EW: 0
K
5
10
6
1
1
0
9
A
8
7
2
1
1
K
5
8
2
2
1
2
Q
6
2
3
2
1
3
J
7
6
4
2
1
4
10
3
10
2
2
1
5
7
4
A
9
0
1
6
K
4
8
6
0
1
7
5
Q
A
9
2
1
8
3
3
J
9
2
1
9
4
8
10
Q
2
1
10
5
2
Q
K
1
2
10
J
7
J
A
0
2
11
E/W -50
13

I was playing Saturday in the ACBL District 20 (Northern California, Hawaii, Southwest Idaho, Oregon, and Southwest Washington State) NAP (North American Pairs) Flight A Final (60 hands in two sessions, played on-line, on BBO). While my partner and I were fortunate enough to win the event, it certainly wasn't because of my declarer play on this hand.

It seems clear (and actually did so at the time) that if I win the first trick I'm cold (as long as LHO led the Spade K from KQ), as long as I can guess the end position at trick 11; i.e., has LHO come down to Q-x of Spades and x in Diamonds, Q-x of Spades and the Diamond K, or Q of Spades and K-x in Diamonds.

One reason I ducked at trick one was the hope that LHO might not know who has the Spade A, and continue spades for that reason, but I didn't think it through--obviously from LHO's perspective, his partner can't have the Spade A (regardless of carding), as he would have overtaken and returned a spade.

[Clearly many other chances as well after ducking the first spade, but none worked out, at least as I played the hand.]

So, in retrospect it seems I should have won the Spade A at trick one (although there would be no real "table feel" in the end position, as we were playing on-line). Yes?

[I note that I don't discount the possibility I may have messed up the hand in some other way].

Thanks.

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