Statistical approach for BZ

I decided to provide some statistical machinery for willing to test and having access to SAS. I'll be also glad to test myself if supplied with data. This machinery uses SAS, which provides p-values for so called 'exact' tests. Most of statistical packages provide only asymptotic p-values, which means they don't work well in small samples.  Small sample for contingency tables necessary to use in the present case corresponds to the lowest observed frequency in such table of 5 or lower. Below I provide a SAS code, which uses data provided by Henrik Boer in 'The Videos Speak: Balicki-Zmudzinski' by Kit Woolsey. This data corresponds to the 5-card suit signal only. Notice that a similar table may be constructed for a hypothesis corresponding to 4- and 5-card suit signalling in which case the data set below will have 8 rows and 4 columns.

/*beginning of code*/

data bz_table; input suit5 signal count; datalines;

0 0 14

1 0 9

0 1 2

1 1 6

;

proc sort data = bz_table; by descending suit5 descending signal; run;

proc freq data = bz_table order = data; tables suit5*signal / chisq; exact pchi; weight count; title ‘BZ Test’; run;

/*end of code*/

Binary variable “suit5” is set equal to 1 if the five-card suit was present, to 0 otherwise. Binary variable “signal” is set equal to 1 if the signal was observed, to 0 otherwise. Variable “count” provides the number of occurrences of a given event.