Join Bridge Winners
Test your play: squeezes and probabilities.
(Page of 5)

You pick up your usual hand:

North
A10
K42
AKQ95
K53
W
N
E
S
1
4
4
P
5
P
?

I assume you would bid 4D, now what?

 

 

 

 

You try 6C, hoping you are making a grand try and partner bids 6N.

North
A10
K42
AKQ95
K53
W
N
E
S
1
4
4
P
5
P
6
P
6NT
P
?

Do you bid on?

 

You raise to 7N and now get to play for partner.

North
A10
K42
AKQ95
K53
South
KQ983
AJ
10742
A2
W
N
E
S
1
4
4
P
5
P
6
P
6NT
P
7NT
P
P
P

A club is lead, which hand should you win this trick in?

RHO follows to the club lead (suggesting 7 with LHO) and you cash a diamond.

How should you play if LHO shows out?  All follow? RHO shows out?

If LHO shows out of diamonds and you were only in 6N, would you play any differently?

If RHO shows out of diamonds, then we can cross in hearts, finesse and then cash diamonds and clubs squeezing RHO in the majors.

If both players follow to the first diamond, then: run 5 diamonds pitching a spade from hand, then three top spades.

  • If LHO follows to the 3rd spade - either spades 3=3, or LHO will be squeezed in clubs+spades.  pitch a heart from dummy, cash 2 hearts ending in hand.  I hope you won the first club in hand in case of this ending?  :)
  • If LHO pitches on the 3rd spade - then you should have a perfect count on the hand.  If they pitch their last club, dummy's club is good, if they pitch a heart, pitch dummy's club and play a club to the Ace, squeezing RHO in the majors.  (non-simultaneous double) 

Finally, what if LHO shows out of diamonds.  This is trickier, and not 100% as the first two scenarios are.

You need to run spades for 5 tricks.  If you can do that, you unblock diamonds and clubs, and play a positional double squeeze, club in dummy against LHO, hearts in the middle, DT in hand for RHO.

So...  how to play AT opposite KQ98x for 5 winners.  With no bidding, playing the top 3 honors is 54% (picking up 3=3 or doubleton J).

But with the bidding, should you play differently?

 

 

Now that LHO has shown 7 to RHOs 1 club and 4 diamonds, at the point where you must decide: A (all follow), T, low

RHO has 6 slots remaining for the J, while LHO has only 5 non-clubs left in hand. 

But finessing only picks up Jxxx but not Jxxxx(x).

So the drop has gone down to about 51% (from 54), but the finesse loses to Jx and Jxx, picking up only Jxxx - which is only 42% (the mistake I made at first was thinking I could pick up all J onside, but that is incorrect)

So although the long suit with LHO changes the probabilities, playing AKQ is still superior to to A and run the T.

 

The full hand:

West
753
Q85
QJ109876
North
A10
K42
AKQ96
K53
East
J64
109763
J853
4
South
KQ982
AJ
10742
A2
D

2 Comments
Getting Comments... loading...
.

Bottom Home Top