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Which Singleton?

North
A1087
Q7
AQ108
K32
South
63
K7532
J98764
W
N
E
S
P
1
1NT
2NT
P
3
P
3
3NT
P
4
X
P
P
P

Matchpoints (from our district NAP finals)

E/W are playing strong club.  2NT was explained as either both minors or a good spade raise.  3 indicated preference to play in clubs if E had both minors, 3 showed a limit raise in spades (not sure if it promised 4 card support).  3NT was intended as weak/distributional minor suit takeout.  N/S had not explicitly discussed what immediate bids over 2NT would be by South, but likely 3 would be Stayman and 3 would have been a transfer to hearts with 3 being a relay to 3NT to show a GF hand with one or both minors (which is what we play if partner had opened 1NT and RHO overcalls 2NT unusual for both minors).

Ease leads a small trump, West follows but will discard on 2nd trump.  Clearly you will pitch a heart on the A and need to set up clubs for no more than 2 losers.  If that suit is 2-2 (unlikely), any club plays will work.  Clearly they are likely to be 3-1.  

You can protect against any one singleton in the East hand:

(1)  Draw trump ending in dummy and play a to the King.  This loses only to stiff Ace.

(2)  Draw trump ending in dummy and plan to run the 9.  This loses only to stiff 10 (since they will tap dummy, win A and tap again while the clubs are still blocked)

(3)  Draw trump ending in hand and lead a low .  This loses only to small stiff since West will win and tap dummy effectively as in line 2.

(4)  Draw trump ending in dummy and lead the J.  This loses only to stiff Queen (same tap idea as in lines 2 and 3)

Opponents are strong.  But they could have beaten you if they'd cashed their 2 hearts first, so this is your big chance for a top.  What do you do?  As you can guess, it's a full board swing riding on your decision.

 

Line 1 ( to King)
Line 2 (run 9)
Line 3 (low away from King)
Line 4 (lead Jack)
Complete guess, no clear preference for any of the above lines

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