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All comments by Arend Bayer
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If you read all posts in that thread you will notice their success as declarer was mostly based on the opponents' failures on opening lead.
Sept. 14, 2015
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Here is another scenario: say someone has discovered evidence of cheating while watching youtube videos of a European championships. What are his/her options?
Sept. 8, 2015
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I do agree the EBL should not rush to judgment. But I do wish they would have rushed to *start* an investigation, and to do so without public pressure, as soon as they received information about possible cheating.

For me, their “Breaking News” item can easily be read as saying: Boye Brogeland was right, without immense public pressure we would never have started an investigation. “Proper channels” do not work.
Sept. 7, 2015
Arend Bayer edited this comment Sept. 7, 2015
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I think the lawsuit is just posturing. They know they have no future in the bridge world. But to keep some plausible deniability towards future non-bridge vict^H^H^H^Hfriends they need to be able to claim they tried to sue.
Sept. 2, 2015
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I would add everyone involved in running BW. Many in their position (running an online bridge discussion forum) would have decided to block Brogeland from posting his announcements on their site. And it meant a lot of additional work for them.
Sept. 1, 2015
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Their CC says a K lead asks for count, and an A lead asks for attitude. Wouldn't it be normal to ask for count here? Dummy might have a diamond suit, so we may have to cash out immediately. Hence I would need to know whether I have two spade tricks (if not, I may have to switch to hearts at trick two).
Aug. 30, 2015
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Dear Kit,

I enjoyed your survey about the coughing doctor's a lot - it was great that you did this, and in my view your method was sound. But I think your objection here is wrong.


There are many possible statistical tests for a given hypothesis of cheating. Yours is certainly a sound one. But there are others. Say you can define an event that would happen 0.1 times per set for a pair that does not cheat, and happens 3 times per set for a pair that does cheat in the way you suspect. If this happens three times in a single set, then this is very strong statistical evidence for cheating. (In fact, by my calculations, it is about as strong evidence as your survey of the doctor's opening leads - I posted some estimates of the Bayes' factor in the comments to your posts back then.) And yet you can show the result of this test just based on a selection of hands.

I hope you reconsider your view. (In fact, if I understand your correctly, you would have the same objection to Larry Cohen's suggested method for convicting cheaters.)

-Arend
Aug. 29, 2015
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Adam, I think you could read between the lines a little more. I bet on hand one Boye is going to explain, based on cracking their cheating methods, that Schwartz knew *specifically* about the king of hearts. (And if you think this is a normal passive lead that some top players would consider - well I am sure you are wrong about that.)

Obviously hand one is not a very good support for the hypothesis “they cheated and both knew the entire hand”. But it is a very good support for the theory “North knew partner's heart holding”.
Aug. 29, 2015
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The idea that we should expect a sponsor in general, or on Jimmy Cayne in particular, to realize that someone on their team is cheating - I am not sure I have words for that suitable for a public forum.
Aug. 28, 2015
Arend Bayer edited this comment Aug. 28, 2015
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Well at least something good came out of this - Ira joined bridgewinners!
Aug. 18, 2015
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Thanks for writing this post, Justin.
Even though I don't know Mike, I immediately wanted to believe his post- Justin's post makes that easy for me (since I trust his judgement on ethics 100%). Why did I want to believe Mike? Well, I'll always be grateful for his actions in Bali 2013. Now I hope he gets appropriate punishment for his crime - maybe a PP of 3 IMPs?
Aug. 18, 2015
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I voted ebooks. But to be truthful, I'd buy *this* book in whichever format it'll get published.
March 12, 2015
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I have just one objection to the modification - the 4th diamond played from dummy should always be 7!
Feb. 25, 2015
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You don't like it? Sorry I wasted your time :) But I do love the position explained on page 2.
Feb. 22, 2015
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Ok, as several posters have pointed out you can make by winning trick one and running four diamonds. But the most beautiful variation comes after ducking trick one and a heart continuation. Can declarer still make?
Feb. 22, 2015
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See my reply below to Sriram for why your first line doesn't work. It's similar for the second line - West only pitches hearts, and the defense gets their fifth trick since dummy gets squeezed on the third heart.
Feb. 21, 2015
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If I understand correctly, you are winning the first heart, lead a diamond to the king, club to the queen, the cash four more diamonds. I do not think this works (and this is part of the beauty of the hand).
West comes down to A8x Q A7, and East K7 8x Jx. If declarer tries to exit in spade, West wins and returns a heart. In any case, at the point where East cashes 8, dummy is squeezed and either J or 8 becomes a trick. Nice 8 :)
Feb. 21, 2015
Arend Bayer edited this comment Feb. 21, 2015
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In my view it's based on a running minor and a stop, or an almost running minor and a double stop, or a big balanced hand with a doubleton in the other major. The big balanced hand with 3 cards in the other major should double.

I don't understand the answers “who cares” when partner of the 3NT overcaller is unlimited and might be interested in slam.
Feb. 13, 2015
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Say a friend of mine is a client who is interested in hiring you for a long-term commitment, but who is worried that you might drop out due to a setback, leaving him with half a team.
What could I tell him to convince him to hire you?
Jan. 15, 2015
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1) Game of Thrones or The Wire?
2) Was it a catch?
3) Is Adnan guilty?
Jan. 15, 2015
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