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All comments by Jonathan Ferguson
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Nope, but it does make a difference that I saw the hand record! 5 baby! (j/k abstain)
Aug. 18, 2012
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I think the one room I missed was the Irish declarer.

In the other match where they reached 7 after a H lead from N, it's cold when trumps break.
Aug. 18, 2012
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Great problem. I could actually see myself passing, opening 1, 2 or 3 with this, depending on how the spirit moves me. I certainly wouldn't criticize partner for any of those choices.

I tend to dislike passing with a hand like this, but with the boss suit it's not terrible and I can likely catch up later. Yes, opps likely have a fit, but it's also likely that they're facing a horrible trump break.

I have the rule of 20 if I want to justify opening 1. But when I look at a holding like J65 I usually see T65.

Pretty automatic (if heavy) 2 bid if you just make my 7 the 7.

Treating a good max 6-4 as a 7-bagger is a reasonable view as well.
Aug. 18, 2012
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That was my biggest takeaway too. I suspect I wouldn't have had the nerve to lead a trump with that holding (leading a into partner's stack instead.) But I like Kit's ‘when the auction screams for a trump lead, lead a trump first and then look at your holding in the suit’.
Aug. 18, 2012
Jonathan Ferguson edited this comment Aug. 18, 2012
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Weary or wary (or both)? :)

I love and share your philosophy, Larry. If not true for 100% of us, it's surely true for 99.9% of us, if our goal is maximizing our long-term results. To be fair, though, surely you've lost a match where the opps had a nifty toy that got them a well-earned result that you were unable to duplicate with simpler methods.
Aug. 18, 2012
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Kit kind of implies as much when he says that S should sit for 2X with his actual holding. I think when he says the bidding suggests 1=4=3=5 we've already seen 2 from partner.

Edit (2 hours later): Then again, Kit says (in the discussion of the trump lead) S's primary suit is . So a little inconsistent there, true.
Aug. 18, 2012
Jonathan Ferguson edited this comment Aug. 18, 2012
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The link in the OP shows you the leads. Neither declarer in 7 got a lead (or played it in the E.)
Aug. 18, 2012
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I'm kinda stunned I didn't upgrade this. I'm red at IMPs with a K&R 9.85 count (ok, I'm almost as stunned that it scores THAT high on K&R) and I'm showing 0-7?

I usually upgrade 3 t's. I usually upgrade a (not-terrible) 5-bagger. I have BOTH and that golden 9 of .
Aug. 18, 2012
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Yes, I watched the hand and he played for the double squeeze.

As you say, on any lead but a heart declarer is likely to go down as he'll just take the D finesse. Only a club lead beats it double dummy.
Aug. 17, 2012
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5 feels like bidding pard's hand for him. JTx might be a trick on defense. If I can't pass in tempo then bidding 5 becomes more attractive.
Aug. 16, 2012
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If true, this is pretty mind boggling. You're saying the hand can be beat 23.5% of the time and that when it can be beat, leading a diamond lets it make over 73% of the time?

At least I'll have someone to blame when my new opening lead philosophy goes awry.
Aug. 16, 2012
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If 3H isn't forcing, I bid that. I'm gonna say it's not.
Aug. 16, 2012
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I'm gonna say that 4C shows C, but I'd like some of what Barry's smokin'.
Aug. 15, 2012
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I think I nailed it.
Aug. 15, 2012
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My 2nd double set up a forcing pass situation.
Partner's pass over 4S denied a spade void.
Partner's pass over 5S promised a spade void.
Your guess is as good as mine.
Aug. 14, 2012
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It's actually a lot harder to go down on this hand than it looks. Still makes after H to Q, H.

Declarer can duck the first C and make. Or win the first C with A and make. And can make on any lead.
Aug. 14, 2012
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2D … if playing for fun 7D.
Aug. 13, 2012
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I think 4S now should show Qx or better. I was tempted to bid it anyway, given the form of scoring. (I was also tempted to blast 3N on the last round, though I agree that slam prospects are just too good at that point.) It's awfully close between 4D and 4S imo.

After 4D, if partner bids 4H, I bid 4S. If partner bids 4S, I pass.
Aug. 12, 2012
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If the S6 were the S9 or ST, a case could be made to trap with this hand at MPs at these colors. (But since it's not, the initial pass has gone from ‘very aggressive’ to ‘bonkers’.)

I don't think either 2S (natural) or 2N (minors with better C) shows this hand type. The choice is between double and 3D imo. Either could work well or badly. If I can double in tempo, I think double is slightly better but if I break tempo, I'd just bid 3D.
Aug. 12, 2012
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I wasn't as tempted as others. Seems like a somewhat close but clear pass to me. -1400 seems almost as likely as +620
Aug. 11, 2012
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