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All comments by Kevin Rosenberg
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My line is wrong, kit is correct below…
Aug. 15
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Another round of trump seems right. This way if trumps are 22 I can pick up 5 diamonds with east by playing kd next
Aug. 15
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I'm afraid 2d is just too likely to lose spades, either for you, or even for the opponents. With both majors breaking badly, I'm not so eager for them to find 3n with some 8 card fit. Here the 2d bid sort of worked because it makes it more likely the opponents reach the game.

At least with qx club, I will likely make my QC against 3n if I've overcalled 2d, so that is a benefit. With xx club, I really dislike 2d
Aug. 13
Kevin Rosenberg edited this comment Aug. 13
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A little too unilateral to bid imo, but passing with so much offense and the shortness seems wrong. I tend to trust them when vulnerable, so hopefully partner will be straining to bid (though I fear them making a losing pass with 2542)

5h is probably practical as well, it may be hard to double you when it's wrong, and it is imps
Aug. 8
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If east even had kx spade you'd have to take the spade finesse right away in the ending, else they could pitch their heart when you ruff a diamond. For that reason, the one suit squeeze element doesn't really matter.
Aug. 7
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I responded 1S, not a negative double
Aug. 3
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even if you think slow doesn't suggest bidding in general, which it almost always does imo, we pretty much KNOW that the bid never would have occurred without the BIT.

Further, I'm fairly confident that if you do an analysis of hands after a slow 4S, vs. after a normal tempo 4S, a far greater percentage of hands will produce a good slam after the slow 4S. Therefore the BIT seems to make bidding more attractive.
Aug. 2
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what's important is we can be fairly confident that this person bid BECAUSE of the BIT. I do personally think this BIT suggests bidding (as the first comment says, "slow shows extras "), but even if we don't know why, imo the rules should be layed out such that if we strongly suspect that a person made a weird winning bid because of UI, then it shouldn't be allowed, even if we aren't fully convinced that the UI theoretically indicated the bid.
Aug. 2
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I don't disagree with the philosophy, but I think on this hand 4s shouldnlikely not make even on the heart lead, if the defense just reverts to trump at further opportunities.
July 25
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in real life I don't really think 4s would get doubled on any non-competitive auctions, but I think it's clear, as some others have argued above, that this is NOT simply a case of W having misbid and E having correctly explained their agreement. I'm wary of those cases in general, and especially here, as E's 2s bid indicates a hedge. So unless they have explicit written proof that this was their agreement, I would let N bid 2H because of the MI, and the end result imo should be at least +420, if not +500 for 4S being bid in some competitive auction.

Further, W cannot pass 2s on the actual auction because of the UI, as many others have also said above.
July 15
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if you give partner AQJxxx xxxx xx x, seems like game is quite desirable. Almost whatever 2S means, raising is not only a logical alternative, but also the correct action imo.
July 15
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the interesting part is we probably get hands with 9 cards the same (and even same shape) fairly often, but when it's an unusual shape, and all the high cards the same, that's when we notice.

the math unfortunately, is the same whether or not it's all the high cards that are the same
July 12
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true, declarer does seem to think the jack of clubs is out, but it seems to me that he must be having a mind loss of epic proportions to think it must be dropping. Who's to say that when he plays the AC and it doesnt drop, that he just decides now that it must have already been played. Ok, he would probably cash his spades first, so I might still rule making 3, but I'm just hesitant to award a declarer who's having such a mind loss any possible advantage in claiming.
July 11
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If they doubled on a marginal hand, we might also accuse them of taking a double shot. I think the lines about what coznstitues a clear double are pretty gray, and I personally doubt they were trying to take a weird sort of double shot in this case.

I'd adjust to 130 for both sides.
July 6
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I think it's probably best to play that from 3 small cards in these situations, you always play top, and from 4 small you play second smallest.

Here I'd definitely have played the 10 at trick 1
July 3
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West will probably think I had Jx diamond, as you said. And while they will probably think it's unlikely to take 4 heart tricks, they will know things need to happen fast, and surely they won't think they can take 4 spade tricks…
June 30
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I'm not sure I really agree that finding a heart shift with the W hand will be so impossible for a good player. I think it is unlikely from their pov that their partner will have the AC, both on the bidding (3N wouldn't be too often bid on Jxx club), and in the play (I think without a clear diamond stopper, ducking the AC is a somewhat unlikely play).

Further, from W's POV, they are simply likely to know that there is not much future in a spade shift, especially if they don't have the king. In these situations, a strong player is likely to recognize that the suit you are most likely to be open in is hearts.

Of course, LHO will probably think you have Jx diamond, but the diamonds will still probably be running from their POV, and they will need a quick beat.

The suggested line seems to me to be a big risk against strong opponents, as you don't really want to go down with diamonds coming in all along.

Finally, if we are intent on ducking a diamond, i think it's much better to try to lose the lead to RHO, which probably means not leading the JD. This is for 2 reasons. First, while a spade shift is not likely to be appealing to LHO, RHO may have a harder time knowing what to shift to (they may not know who has the AC, and thus won't realize the urgency as much as LHO). Second, if RHO has H10x of hearts, there is simply a technical reason to put them on lead, as a heart shift is killing only from LHO.

EDIT: just realized on the last point, RHO with H10x (but the not the 7 spot), can shift to the 10 and the defense can cash 4 tricks. I do think this will be a difficult play for them to even consider from their pov on this hand.
June 30
Kevin Rosenberg edited this comment June 30
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this line does fail to RHO's 5251 and 5341. Note the only singleton heart RHO can really have is the queen. if i cash the AH and don't see the queen, I believe I can continue a second heart and pick up 5341 with RHO (ruff diamond return, continue 3rd heart, if they play another diamond can pitch a club and ruff in dummy, then AC QC should make).

I don't believe this has any real drawbacks except the opponents leading a small diamond instead of from their KQJ or QJ10x or KQ10x. If LHO cashes a 3rd heart and RHO pitches a club I am fine unless RHO is 5251, but then I was never really gonna make.
June 17
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I tend to believe them in these situations, in that they usually are correctly telling us, you have a slam. would like to have a forcing pass here but I understand not. Doubling is further from hand than 5s imo. They may have overcalled a 4 card suit of course, which could be bad.
June 15
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ah ok I misunderstood, maybe your 2nd sentence should have clarified it.

At any rate, while someone could be lying, I don't think anyone has to be. If the 1H bidder was indeed psyching, this just seems like a classic example of a fielded psych to me.
June 13
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