Join Bridge Winners
All comments by Kevin Rosenberg
You are ignoring the author of this comment. Click to temporarily show the comment.
I have, at least some values, and am willing to take a shot at MP's defending 2s doubled, with my 10s, etc. I think this is the least of all evils (I'd think 2nt seems likely to be natural without discussion) and 3d feels like a bit of a position. I like 3d better than pass. Also, although we have no agreements I'm assuming, if partner had a good penalty double of 2s, they might have doubled immediately (although i play that situation as t/o still). Overall, I think pretty close but I'd double and bid 3d before passing (and would bid 2nt if it were t/o for sure)
Jan. 27, 2014
You are ignoring the author of this comment. Click to temporarily show the comment.
I agree with the first pass but know the hand so I'm abstaining, I don't think there is a clearly correct answer.
Jan. 26, 2014
You are ignoring the author of this comment. Click to temporarily show the comment.
I think South's pass is strange because N keycarded in spades and they could have almost anything, and unless their pass is an offer to play 5cx, which I can't imagine you'd agreed, I'd be terrified of passing 5c. It's also true that N should respond 2c, and North's 4nt bid seems bad, they don't even know where they're going yet which is a bad time for blackwood. My auction would go

1h-2c-2d-2n-3n- (pass seems best here but even if 4nt is bid it will be passed)

Notice how much harder the auction can get when you don't start off by bidding your long suit.
Jan. 19, 2014
Kevin Rosenberg edited this comment Jan. 19, 2014
You are ignoring the author of this comment. Click to temporarily show the comment.
I think after they win KD and exit a club, you can just win the ace and play fully on spades. Say they win the third round and play a club, you hold it in dummy, cash the spade, and overtake the QD back to your hand to set up a diamond as your 9th trick. By the way, there should be no maybe about E's heart holding, they have AQJ109, people open light but they don't double insanely. I think besides that you summed it up well. Even if W has some 3-1-4-5 hand you can endplay them on an immediate club return in the way that you said.
Jan. 18, 2014
You are ignoring the author of this comment. Click to temporarily show the comment.
I'm not much for calculating exact probability at the table, but I'll do my best here. I'd win AD, play two top spades (if Jack drops then cash two clubs and enter dummy with 10S), if not then draw third trump, and play a 4th trump pitching a diamond just in case. Now play three rounds of clubs ending in dummy and if they don't split, it seems like now, it may be a good time for probability (I think that up to this point the play is clear).

Hooking 10H clearly wins when E has 10xxx (10 cases),K10xx(10 cases), K10xxx(10 cases but less likely), K10xxxx (5 cases very unlikely), 10xxxx (5 cases but unlikely), and 10xxxxx(1 case very unlikely) and loses when E has xxxx (5 cases), Kxxx (10 cases, but you'll only win about 50% of time by playing queen, call it +5), Kxx (10 cases but again only +5 for same reason),Kxxxx (5 cases, not as likely) and Kxxxxx (1 case very unlikely–I think that cashing the heart ace before playing clubs is the technically correct play, but may be wrong because a heart pitch may come on the third round of clubs more if you don't touch hearts…not sure here but i'd want to keep my options open i think)

Based on this, hooking the heart ten looks clear as if it's maybe a shade worse than 2/1 in your favor if you are a totally average guesser, and even if you could be perfect hooking the heart ten may still be right. However, you will have seen 4 discards most likely at this point, and if one of them was a heart, that changes a lot. Probably, you tend to finesse now, especially if righty discarded a heart because K10x on your left seems likely and you no longer need to pick up 10xxx on your right (nobody would pitch a heart from K10xx. Still, they could easily have 10xxxx so this seems unclear to me. Either way, if i see 4 diamonds only, i think that hooking the heart ten is right.

Feel free to let me know if i made any errors, etc.
Jan. 11, 2014
Kevin Rosenberg edited this comment Jan. 11, 2014
You are ignoring the author of this comment. Click to temporarily show the comment.
My style is to play 3c is GF because it's simple. I think another fine style is that the only non-game after 3c is 3h by opener and responder passes. A negative double gives you no gain because you vastly misdescribe your hand, you don't have 4 spades, you don't want it left in…Also i don't see the gain even over 2h. I'd rather start showing my clubs now.
Jan. 7, 2014
You are ignoring the author of this comment. Click to temporarily show the comment.
I actually held this hand as well, and thought about what i was gonna bid, thankfully i got a 4s call by W which got rid of my problem, but i think 3nt is probably most winning overall, I like passing and even i wouldn't pass.

Incidentally the vul has them as white I remember, I think it's unfavorable.
Jan. 7, 2014
You are ignoring the author of this comment. Click to temporarily show the comment.
If Declarer had the 9 of hearts I think that would be a type of guard squeeze, because East is forced into pitching diamonds, and now a simple squeeze operates against W, similarly to what happened at the table.

One way to look at it is that East can't ever pitch away his diamond guard because it will 100% subject West to a simple red suit squeeze.
Jan. 4, 2014
You are ignoring the author of this comment. Click to temporarily show the comment.
Never mind I wrote something wrong
Dec. 26, 2013
You are ignoring the author of this comment. Click to temporarily show the comment.
Yes, although I think just to be clean, this way is better on the very off chance that E has 3-2-4-4.
Dec. 24, 2013
You are ignoring the author of this comment. Click to temporarily show the comment.
once you've already ducked a heart successfully, why not draw 2 round of trump, cash the ace of hearts, AC, club to king, KD,ruff JD, and then exit a spade if nobody has ruffed. The benefit here is that if W has the 3 spades and doubleton heart, they will have a diamond exit on your line, no? I don't think this alteration reduces my chances in any way.
Dec. 24, 2013
You are ignoring the author of this comment. Click to temporarily show the comment.
I feel like that logic is a bit overused. Rarely is there a time when you think a contract may be making or going down 4. I don't in general like defending partscores just on that logic. Here, I think it isn't bad to defend 1s exactly, but I think 1nt is probably the percentage bid, because I doubt you're getting 1s for more than 1 very often, and it may make, which isn't a disaster, but is a minus imp score 4 to 9 imps or so.
Dec. 17, 2013
You are ignoring the author of this comment. Click to temporarily show the comment.
In a way though now that I think about it, if declarer did have the original hand i gave, their play would make sense because they want to appear as though they have less tricks than they do. Just the fact that they played the QD shows they know something, although the form of scoring and who they are would help… Unless I know they're top class I wouldn't consider playing them to make this play. I won't lose to the more normal Axx, 1098x, AKQx, Kx.
Dec. 4, 2013
Kevin Rosenberg edited this comment Dec. 4, 2013
You are ignoring the author of this comment. Click to temporarily show the comment.
It all fits with 3442 in my opinion. Partner should give att at trick 1 the way I play at least, and would play low playing std from 43. The worry of course is that declarer has 2-3-4 tricks, and partner has Kxxxx of clubs, declarer having played a crafty QD from Axx, Jxxx, AKQx, Jx. If I knew declarer had the JH, I could actually shift to a club safely, because either declarer has 2-3-4 tricks (partner might have KD and declarer has 10), or partner has 10d, and even with the club tricks i give away, declarer can still only come to 8 tricks. Now we look at the heart spots to go further into the hand. Declarer is marked with the 8 because partner gave count with the 7. If declarer had J1098 they would have to be pretty top class to even think of playing this way (crossing back to hand, etc.) It seems much more likely that declarer doesn't have the JH, which means i have the contract 100% beat by playing a spade. This still looks strange though. The only way declarer can have a nt opener is if they have both minor suit kings. Either way, if partner has the JH, I want to play the 9S.
Dec. 4, 2013
You are ignoring the author of this comment. Click to temporarily show the comment.
I really don't like opening 2c. Even if partner does have 109xx, xx, xxx, Qxxx (Laydown is a strong word on that hand) we will still be able to get to 4s because i would respond with the other hand personally, and (more commonly) one op would bid hearts, allowing north to jump shift in spades if they choose. Personally, I don't see how the hell you can get to 4s opposite the given hand by opening 2c in a normal system, and even though i can show the hand with 3s, i just can't stand bidding the hand this way, and forcing to game (i assume). Either way, I think there are a million unknown hands that produce nothing opposite this one.
Nov. 29, 2013
You are ignoring the author of this comment. Click to temporarily show the comment.
I want to choose the option depends largely on the hand. I'd probably lean towards passing at imps a little more than most people, and balancing against weak players at MP;s
Nov. 26, 2013
You are ignoring the author of this comment. Click to temporarily show the comment.
maybe, although i think more likely is 1d-p-1s-p-2s back to me…
Nov. 4, 2013
You are ignoring the author of this comment. Click to temporarily show the comment.
I agree, if diamonds are 3-3, this seems likely to make. If W predictably wins and play the 9/10 of clubs, i cover with the jack and east wins the queen. Here if they knock out hearts, i will duck a diamond, and must come to a make, because if E wins i make it by the fact that the defense can only cash 5 tricks and i have 1-3-2-2 of them. If W wins here, (or if E returns a diamond to W KQ10 or KQ9, i also have to be careful to duck, or else W can later exit ace and a spade to lock me in hand), they will inevitably get endplayed in spades later as long as i'm careful, and they started with the expected 5-1-3-4 shape.

Nov. 4, 2013
Kevin Rosenberg edited this comment Nov. 4, 2013
You are ignoring the author of this comment. Click to temporarily show the comment.
i'd think that would likely be on 4-6, it feel like too big a distortion to me
Oct. 22, 2013
You are ignoring the author of this comment. Click to temporarily show the comment.
Maybe this has been said already, I couldnt read all of the comments :). I think ruffing the third diamond with the J may or may not be better than pitching, it seems hard to tell (one factor is that if righty has Qxxx then you will be at a guess later if you pitch whereas you can easily pick up the suit by ruffing.

Anyway, once you did ruff and it held, I think AH ruff a heart, spade to ace, ruff a heart is probably the best play. Your line seems not very likely to work, as I'd have found it near impossible at a club game that lefty has both kings (not to mention the QS!). Maybe when righty is 3-4-2-4 with the KC but not KC your line will work if you guess clubs, as righty will be endplayed on the third spade. My line will work on that hand too though, and it will also work on the actual hand (if i guess the club). On the actual hand righty could have put you to a guess by exiting a club instead of a heart.

As long as lefty has at least 3 hearts, and doesn't have three trumps, my line will always give me the ability to make the contract, and loses probably gains more while bringing down Kxx of hearts than it loses by getting over-ruffed by lefty when they are 2-2 in the majors.

One hand to prove my point is Qxx, Kxx, AKxxx, xx, where my line makes but you will have no chance because lefty can exit a diamond or a club when they get in with the spade.

Not sure, tough hand! Other feel free to comment, thanks
Oct. 16, 2013
Kevin Rosenberg edited this comment Oct. 16, 2013
.

Bottom Home Top