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All comments by Kevin Rosenberg
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8.75 trumps + 7.75 trumps=16.5 says pass, but i cant do it
May 13, 2014
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partner is allowed to bid 5m with 3-5 in the reds or something, and the odds seem low to me that we'll hear pass or 3nt when we hold 3s, especially the former.
May 9, 2014
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to say i need club help and two outside aces is a lot I think, as 3nt is ok with as little as Axxx, 109xx, xx, Jxx
May 7, 2014
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There is a middle ground I would have chosen.
May 6, 2014
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I still don't understand declarer's duck. Now he's down when the AS is onside.
May 6, 2014
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Partner must have A10x for what's happening to make any sense. Therefore it's imperative for partner to play a spade when he gets in. I think the 3 choices are the Qs, 10s, or 6d. I think 10s is probably best since it's an honest card and i do actually want spades led back. Then again, pretending to have QJ might well get the suit led back also, but I'm not sure so I'll go for the 10s. Incidentally if the 6d were say the 9 or 8, I'd lead that at imps to be super sure.
May 5, 2014
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i would have bid 2d originally, and now i'll bid 3d if forced to pass first
April 17, 2014
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I agree that's not very likely, but it's possible. Here's another thing to consider, if partner bids 2h p/c and responder competes to 3m, and now partner balances with 3h, is this p/c still or a real offer to play? 2d may well be the right bid, but personally i'd bid 2c as the simple and most practical bid.
April 9, 2014
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I disagree that there arent hands where they will bid 3h on a 3 card suit, say the auction goes 2d-3d by responder, and partner has QJx, KQx, xx, AJxxx. Not bidding 3h seems sick to me, and the vulnerability makes it more not less attractive since partner wont be balancing with crap. At the same time they might bid 3h with as you say, 5 hearts and little else. I think I have an impossible choice here. True, this situation is unlikely, and 2d has merit, but I just dislike all systems where you cant ask for longer major, even when you're not really planning to sit for your shorter major :)
April 8, 2014
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I'm worried that while that may be a nice plan in theory, that someone will bid 3 of a minor and partner will wrongly compete to 3h on a 4 card suit, but I guess it might not be that bad. Still, might partner bid 3h with 3-3 in the majors assuming it's still pass or correct? I dont want to get into it.
April 8, 2014
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Maybe, that one's weird, i dont think the J is doubleton because they 8 is suck a subtle play on the second round from 10987 but maybe the 10 is doubleton and the J is of equals, still i dont think most would give count with the 10 from 108 doubleton so I dont know lol, the carding doesn't make much sense either way, but i can't really think of a 3-3 break that makes sense so I guess I'd give up since some lefties still might duck the AC.
March 30, 2014
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I have a 100% play to make six. If I play for 3-3 hearts i will make 7 36% of the time but lose about 23% on making six (5-1 hearts i'm fine, and 48/2 - a little=23) So playing hearts looks favored by the odds unless you're playing weak ops where lefty will duck the club whenever they have the ace.

Also my answer is in a vacuum or at least in a strong field. In a weak field, not only the above mentioned applies, but also not everyone will get to 6nt, or at least it's more likely that someone will bid 6d or a grand, who knows? So I'd play a low club at trick 2 in say a club game.

Finally, even in a strong field, if the ops play high low to give count I'd probably trust them unless I think they're really good (most people are aware of the play but are often not alert enough to do it)
March 30, 2014
Kevin Rosenberg edited this comment March 30, 2014
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i'm not afraid of them running, and i think i'm gonna make this, but i see i'm the only redoubler so maybe im nuts. if partner has Jxx xxxxx xxxx x i my odds are fair and they would never bid this way with so little. I think they must have a stiff club though for their bidding
March 28, 2014
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saving time :) Hard to imagine I'll be able to find out this is wrong unless partner has like QJ10xx of spades and a void in clubs or something, and even then not clear.
March 23, 2014
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the 5 is a lie in theory, but it can't hurt here since i know partner only has 4 and might help…
March 23, 2014
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I think while you miss a few vul games by passing, you just go down 2 or 3 in ridiculous contracts too much by doubling. or partner leaves in the double and you maybe produce 0 tricks
March 23, 2014
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being cautious, if i hear 5c maybe i bid 5d anyway or just go to slam based on the fact they cooperated. If I hear 5h over 4s I think I technically have to pass.

I think 6h also has merit directly since bidding 4s-5c-6h might further pinpoint a diamond lead if we do happen to be off AK. Maybe this is why I should just bid 5d over 5c to confuse the issue a little. Still, the odds of p having a hand like Kx, Kxxxx, Qxx, KQx are small, which is another win for 6h direct. If you're not off two diamonds then slam should be percentage to bid. In other words there probably won't be a way to stay out of bad slams without staying out of more good ones. Still, not my style to bid 6h so I wimp out and call 4s.
March 23, 2014
Kevin Rosenberg edited this comment March 23, 2014
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also, I think if declarer has a doubleton diamond, then their other diamond should be the 3, not say the J, because why else would partner not play their lowest spot? Maybe I'm wrong there, but either way, whatever declarer's other diamond is won't affect any of the discussed positions above.
March 21, 2014
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whatever 2nt means i have it. :)
March 21, 2014
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yeah good point (I do use 2s size ask).
March 20, 2014
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