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All comments by Kevin Rosenberg
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I think pass is too out there, and 2 diamonds might need further discussion to know how forcing it is… I think that in any kind of standard bidding, 2s creates a GF, although the way you described it in the poll makes it the best choice. Assuming 2s is game-forcing, I'd bid 2d because, if you haven't discussed it, partner still will probably be too afraid to pass. I think 2nt is better than 2s slightly unless…
a)partner has AX spade and i wrong side it
b)They run 5 spades and we have a better contract in clubs or hearts…

If you play a naturalish system over 2nt like I do, then partner can still support clubs with 3c over 2nt, and maybe, if partner bids NMF, you bid 3h since partner knows you can't have 3 card support.

After all this I still think I'd bid 2d, but 2nt seems fine, 2s seems like you just get too high sometimes, especially if you respond light. If you never respond light then 2s is fine.
March 2, 2014
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The 1st answer is close, except I don't think there need be 6 hearts always… It's definitely not the end of bidding since 2d bidder is unlimited. “Competitive” is best word to use. Should be either 6 hearts or a stiff somewhere…
March 1, 2014
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Partner might be 1-3-4-5 (this seems most likely to me) as for an explanation of why they didn't double 2c, but did double 2s. I don't think most people would x 2s without 3 hearts.
Feb. 25, 2014
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I doubled which is a little bit offbeat, but seems ok. Partner's most likely bid is 3c (which he'd bid on the hand above). Now I have a choice between 3d and 3h, and I'd personally bid 3d. Partner has a clear 3h bid, and I have a clear 4h bid. Now if partner had stiff Jack of hearts, my sequence might lead to an inferior 5d contract, although my hope was to bid 4h at my next chance.
Feb. 12, 2014
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4n feels just wrong to me, but i think it's actually better than 5c, cause you just won't know about keycards if you do that. Still give a decent hand like Ax, KQxx, AQx, AQxx. This is a nice looking 21 count and not a great slam.
Feb. 10, 2014
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Either way, East doesn't have seven clubs most likely, even if W did underlead the ace, so it strongly looks as though W is 1-6-2-4, as said above.

Feb. 6, 2014
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Even with a 9 card heart fit, game could be tricky, and I like our odds on defense… Maybe I'm a little off though, seems close.

Jan. 30, 2014
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3h should probably deny 3s. These auctions are hard, which is why I bid 3s with opener's hand as much as I can, and I play Non-Serious over that, which makes things a little better.
Jan. 28, 2014
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I have, at least some values, and am willing to take a shot at MP's defending 2s doubled, with my 10s, etc. I think this is the least of all evils (I'd think 2nt seems likely to be natural without discussion) and 3d feels like a bit of a position. I like 3d better than pass. Also, although we have no agreements I'm assuming, if partner had a good penalty double of 2s, they might have doubled immediately (although i play that situation as t/o still). Overall, I think pretty close but I'd double and bid 3d before passing (and would bid 2nt if it were t/o for sure)
Jan. 27, 2014
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I agree with the first pass but know the hand so I'm abstaining, I don't think there is a clearly correct answer.
Jan. 26, 2014
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I think South's pass is strange because N keycarded in spades and they could have almost anything, and unless their pass is an offer to play 5cx, which I can't imagine you'd agreed, I'd be terrified of passing 5c. It's also true that N should respond 2c, and North's 4nt bid seems bad, they don't even know where they're going yet which is a bad time for blackwood. My auction would go

1h-2c-2d-2n-3n- (pass seems best here but even if 4nt is bid it will be passed)

Notice how much harder the auction can get when you don't start off by bidding your long suit.
Jan. 19, 2014
Kevin Rosenberg edited this comment Jan. 19, 2014
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I think after they win KD and exit a club, you can just win the ace and play fully on spades. Say they win the third round and play a club, you hold it in dummy, cash the spade, and overtake the QD back to your hand to set up a diamond as your 9th trick. By the way, there should be no maybe about E's heart holding, they have AQJ109, people open light but they don't double insanely. I think besides that you summed it up well. Even if W has some 3-1-4-5 hand you can endplay them on an immediate club return in the way that you said.
Jan. 18, 2014
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I'm not much for calculating exact probability at the table, but I'll do my best here. I'd win AD, play two top spades (if Jack drops then cash two clubs and enter dummy with 10S), if not then draw third trump, and play a 4th trump pitching a diamond just in case. Now play three rounds of clubs ending in dummy and if they don't split, it seems like now, it may be a good time for probability (I think that up to this point the play is clear).

Hooking 10H clearly wins when E has 10xxx (10 cases),K10xx(10 cases), K10xxx(10 cases but less likely), K10xxxx (5 cases very unlikely), 10xxxx (5 cases but unlikely), and 10xxxxx(1 case very unlikely) and loses when E has xxxx (5 cases), Kxxx (10 cases, but you'll only win about 50% of time by playing queen, call it +5), Kxx (10 cases but again only +5 for same reason),Kxxxx (5 cases, not as likely) and Kxxxxx (1 case very unlikely–I think that cashing the heart ace before playing clubs is the technically correct play, but may be wrong because a heart pitch may come on the third round of clubs more if you don't touch hearts…not sure here but i'd want to keep my options open i think)

Based on this, hooking the heart ten looks clear as if it's maybe a shade worse than 2/1 in your favor if you are a totally average guesser, and even if you could be perfect hooking the heart ten may still be right. However, you will have seen 4 discards most likely at this point, and if one of them was a heart, that changes a lot. Probably, you tend to finesse now, especially if righty discarded a heart because K10x on your left seems likely and you no longer need to pick up 10xxx on your right (nobody would pitch a heart from K10xx. Still, they could easily have 10xxxx so this seems unclear to me. Either way, if i see 4 diamonds only, i think that hooking the heart ten is right.

Feel free to let me know if i made any errors, etc.
Jan. 11, 2014
Kevin Rosenberg edited this comment Jan. 11, 2014
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My style is to play 3c is GF because it's simple. I think another fine style is that the only non-game after 3c is 3h by opener and responder passes. A negative double gives you no gain because you vastly misdescribe your hand, you don't have 4 spades, you don't want it left in…Also i don't see the gain even over 2h. I'd rather start showing my clubs now.
Jan. 7, 2014
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I actually held this hand as well, and thought about what i was gonna bid, thankfully i got a 4s call by W which got rid of my problem, but i think 3nt is probably most winning overall, I like passing and even i wouldn't pass.

Incidentally the vul has them as white I remember, I think it's unfavorable.
Jan. 7, 2014
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If Declarer had the 9 of hearts I think that would be a type of guard squeeze, because East is forced into pitching diamonds, and now a simple squeeze operates against W, similarly to what happened at the table.

One way to look at it is that East can't ever pitch away his diamond guard because it will 100% subject West to a simple red suit squeeze.
Jan. 4, 2014
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Never mind I wrote something wrong
Dec. 26, 2013
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Yes, although I think just to be clean, this way is better on the very off chance that E has 3-2-4-4.
Dec. 24, 2013
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once you've already ducked a heart successfully, why not draw 2 round of trump, cash the ace of hearts, AC, club to king, KD,ruff JD, and then exit a spade if nobody has ruffed. The benefit here is that if W has the 3 spades and doubleton heart, they will have a diamond exit on your line, no? I don't think this alteration reduces my chances in any way.
Dec. 24, 2013
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I feel like that logic is a bit overused. Rarely is there a time when you think a contract may be making or going down 4. I don't in general like defending partscores just on that logic. Here, I think it isn't bad to defend 1s exactly, but I think 1nt is probably the percentage bid, because I doubt you're getting 1s for more than 1 very often, and it may make, which isn't a disaster, but is a minus imp score 4 to 9 imps or so.
Dec. 17, 2013
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