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If i pass it's probably coming back at 2, so if i want to show some cards without spade fit now is the time.
Feb. 15, 2017
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Obvisously not playing the J at trick 1 is a misplay. The line adopted is definitely against the odds, however accusing someone from cheating because they got lucky on a wrong line is ridiculous
Feb. 13, 2017
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Just analyzing the problem without the “Assuming we play an Equal-Level-Conversion style of Takeout Doubles” part. Ofcourse if you play equal level conversion this is textbook double and the hand probably wouldn't be here.
Feb. 13, 2017
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I think 90% of these decisions are state of the game decisions. The room will certainly bid double. 2 is a reasonable gamble if you want to create a swing.
Feb. 13, 2017
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NV vs VUL, opps are likely to compete to 3. I would like a spade lead, the competitive value of the hand is in spades plus the Ax makes me think that 2 is a reasonable bid. Pairs is a different game…
Feb. 13, 2017
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It looks really close but I think J9xx is deceiving. With xxxx there wouldn't be a discussion. 2 looks like the percentage bid, if we miss a game so be it.
Sept. 19, 2016
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It depends if partner can bid 2NT as a natural bid when i am reopening. If 2NT is conventional i would pass.
Sept. 19, 2016
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Just doing the math:
P has J and 10 —> 12/90 –> slam makes 99% –> 0.132
P has J not 10 —> 24/90 –> slam makes 84% –> 0.224
P has 10 not J —> 24/90 –> slam makes 51% –> 0.136
P not J not 10 —> 30/90 –> slam makes 36% –> 0.12
Total 0.612. So grand makes 61.2%

Even after “whole deal adjustment” this should be over 60%.
A clear 7
Sept. 17, 2015
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I agree, but opening in level 2 instead of 1 will save you from many unconfortable negative doubles or a 2 bid by partner. If you want your partner to be careful about competing, 2 should be your choice. Otherwise 2 is more tactical because you are preempring s
A problem is that if you pass, most of the times you'll not be able to overcall at the first level.
Feb. 12, 2015
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Seriously, i don't understand this problem. I would like to hear the back story :p
March 15, 2014
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I like the analysis however the issue is not to find the best line to make the contract but the line with the higher expectation. I accept the premises that:

1)Diamonds are 3-2
2)We know nothing about the enemy distribution.
3)Strong bias in favor of AK of diamonds; spades are not 4-4 asume 5-3

Now there are 4 cases:

a)Qxx inside (30%)
b)Qx inside (20%)
c)Qxx outside (30%)
d)Qx outside (20%)

As mentioned above after AK of diamons (where the Q does not drop)the probablitilty of making the contract is 25%

In 100 boards i will denote with (+) the imps in favor of the finesse and with (-) the imps in favor of AK

case a.
30 boards * 0.75 * 11 imps (AK line goes 2 down)= +247.5
30 boards * 0.25 * 0 imps : 0 imps

case b.
20 boards both lines win

case c.
30 boards * 0.75 * 2 imps (extra down of AK) = +45
30 boards * 0,25 * -10 imps = -75 imps

case d.
20 boards * - 10 imps = -200 imps

Overall the expectation is +17.5 (+0.175) in favor for the finesse even though AK is a better as a percentage to make the contract
March 4, 2014
Konstantinos Doxiadis edited this comment March 4, 2014
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Sorry i just realized i did not mention that 5 could also be 4th from K1075 or KJ75
Oct. 9, 2013
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“Axxx xxx xxxx xx do you suggest that with this hand you should pass and hope that partner will lead a spade??”

So with xxx Axxx xxx xxx you will pass and hope for a heart lead?

I have three questions:

a) If you don't double, is partner more likely to lead a heart or a spade?

b) The most important question, in which of the two cases it is more urgent to receive the correct lead?

c) Given that you have an Ace, which of the two hands is more likely?
Nov. 2, 2012
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Is this because it makes life easier to always ask for dummy's first suit, or because it is statistically more important to be able to ask for a spade lead rather that a heart lead?
Nov. 1, 2012
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Your cards don't matter. Parner is not supposed to know what your natural lead is but he knows what are the expected leads in this auction. Club is reasonable for a passive lead, sometimes spade is a reasonable passive lead. He also knows that the most unlikely lead is heart. I hope we can agree on that.
Now suppose that your parner is on the lead and you hold an ace.
If this is the ace of spades then a) partner might lead it, b) declarer might not have 13 tricks if partner doesn't lead a spade
If this is the ace of hearts a) parter will not lead it, b)declarer is more likely to have 13 tricks without a heart lead.
So does X mean lead spade, or does it mean I have an Ace and i am worried?
Nov. 1, 2012
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Club
Nov. 1, 2012
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Diamond
Nov. 1, 2012
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Heart
Nov. 1, 2012
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