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All comments by Michael Askgaard
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A slow 2?
March 13, 2014
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I play pass as scrambling here. Yes theoretical exploitable, but in practice I think it is better.

So these things are not definite but depend on agreements.
March 11, 2014
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I agree with Avon that it is hard to see why a 4-4 heart fit should play better than a 5-4 spade fit here.

It doesn't seem wise to bid 4 if that leaves it to partner to guess how many spades we have.
March 9, 2014
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With only a doubleton spade and having a third trump to ruff in with, we are quite unlucky to see declarer take a critical discard with a spade winner.
March 8, 2014
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Way too much energy is spilled on this kind of meta-thinking. What is so bad about variance anyway? The variance is already there. Take a typical MP board, the results are all over the place, and some of the identical results are probably reached through different ways. We can't control this, so we shouldn't try.

Here we have 64 boards or 2 sessions to play, and there will be lucky boards and unlucky boards. Let's come out in open fight instead of trying to beat them like exactly 20-0 in imps corresponding to our percieved edge. It won't happen anyway.

IOW: It has zero impact on my choice of opening 1x or not what I thought the opponent(s) at the other table(s) might do.
March 8, 2014
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Yes, SEVEN clubs is 50%, and we would be in three.
March 7, 2014
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If 1 does not show spades, then we could of course just bid 2 natural. If they show spades and we have a 5-card spade positive in third hand, it is pretty rare that it goes spade raise followed by pass from partner with presumably very short spades. It takes a bluff overcall for that to happen. If they do get away with a bluff overcall, congratulations to them, we have plenty of good results against such dubious tactics to comfort us with.
March 6, 2014
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The best way to counter various insane intervention over our strong club is in my opinion to bid our own hands and let the chips fall where they may. Sometimes they might get a lucky board by getting to the 3-level in a 3-3 fit, so be it, but I'm confident that in the long run they will suffer, even if we don't have a penalty double in the bag for them in nonforcing situations.

On the other hand we need a takeout double to counter the intervention that is sane.
March 6, 2014
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I prefer takeout.
March 6, 2014
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Good points, maybe it needs refining. We haven't adopted it yet.

What we do play is 1-1M-1N-3M as a 5332 type choice of games. Opener can choose 3N with a flat 3card support, so when we get to 3N they know as little as possible about declarer's hand. That is idea also behind the switched answers.
March 4, 2014
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Qxx values minus 1p or more for doubling. So I pass.
March 4, 2014
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Sure, 2 & 2 would be alertable then, since they are artificial (showing the other major).
March 4, 2014
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With 2way, one can switch 2M after 1m-1-1N-2. So 2 shows three spades (over which 2 shows four hearts), and 2 shows four hearts denying three spades.

That leaks less information to the opponents, when it is a typical 3N or 4M board.
March 4, 2014
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3 is showing 5-6 in my book.
March 3, 2014
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I have no idea what “standard” is from AK.
March 3, 2014
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3. If partner cuebids 4, I will check key cards for the grand. Otherwise I will bid 6.
March 3, 2014
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4N. Since I have shown no suit so far, partner's 4 is a splinter for his own suit. It makes no sence to splinter for spades, when I have not shown spades. If partner had a choice of strains hand, he would have bid 3.

I think I have enough to blackwood.
March 3, 2014
Michael Askgaard edited this comment March 3, 2014
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4N. Partner's sequence shows 4 weak hearts and minor alternative(s). Since 4 was NF, 4N should be clear as a takeout for the minors.
March 3, 2014
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This hand is nothing special. It is likely that declarer is 6124 and A will be in dummy. When we have inhaled our 2 diamond tricks, we need partner to take 4+ tricks with his black middle cards, that's a lot. I'm not doubling.
March 3, 2014
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Pass. Our overcalls are too crappy to take this push. If partner doubles on the way out, I'll take a shot at 5.
March 3, 2014
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