Join Bridge Winners
All comments by Ophir Reshef
1 2 3 4 5 6
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Might as well ruff with the 6
Dec. 30, 2017
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Vs Axxxx xx Axxxx x 7 is a much better contract than 6NT, so why bid the lower scoring game?
Sept. 23, 2017
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Partner is most likely 3361. In such case, slam will fail if he doesn't have any K in either major. If I can bid forcing 4 I will find out.
Aug. 31, 2017
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6 is the only outrageous bid, but 3, 3, and 4 are all minor overbids.
Aug. 30, 2017
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Thanks John, really interesting.
Looks like inviting through 2N is a bad idea, better take the chances with 4 (though you didn't explicitly say what the odds are making 2NT vs minimum, I assume they are pretty similar to the odds of making 3NT vs 17 HCP).
Between 4 and 2->3 it's close.
Aug. 19, 2017
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Itzik, any results of the simulation?
Aug. 15, 2017
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John, what percent do we make 2nt, 3nt, and 4h vs. minimum hand with two hearts, and maximum hand with two hearts?

If three trumps are so important, one option is to bid 2d-2h-2nt, then bid 4 over anything partner bids. This way we avoid bad 4 but land in awkward 2N instead, not sure if it's worth it.
Aug. 15, 2017
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Should play last-train for those positions, slightly technically better to use 4 for it.
May 15, 2017
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It's actually a bad MP / BAM strategy. In MPs it is a clear X.
So many ways to win: converting
+100 -> +200,
+100 -> +110,
-110 -> -50.

Only lose when partner takes out when they are two down (unlikely), or when they make (both unlikely, and inexpensive, since -110 is already a bad score).
May 15, 2017
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I'd assume the leader does not have Singleton Club, so bad Club break practically means 4+ Clubs with W, including both QT (else singleton Q/T will show on first Club round and solve the hand).

Cashing 3 trumps will fail on bad Club break as defined.

Cashing 2 trumps and play 2nd Club->A from dummy is better: Also wins if W has QTxx+ with exactly 2 Spades. No point putting the J if E follows, since W is “guaranteed” to follow suit.

Cashing 1 trump will also win against W having QTxx with 3+ trumps, but will lose against 2 trumps with H entry. Since H entry is only ~2/3rd of the time (with AK W would have led it), it looks like a better option. 3 or 4 trumps with W is about 10:11 vs 2 trumps given the 4-1 Club split, but becomes 10:7 taking into account the required H entry.
May 14, 2017
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Simplest way is to look at the original cards regardless of what declarer plays: 6 is more likely to be low from 9865.
May 8, 2017
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“However, this is not true if declarer follows the strategy, that
he will always play his LOWEST card if he wants you to play a CLUB”

This is the equivalent of saying that restricted choice with 9 cards missing QJ won't work if the J drops, but your opponent always drops the J from QJ. Sure, if that's indeed the strategy they use, but there is no reason to think that is the case because the two cards are equivalent.
May 8, 2017
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North hand is worth a slam unless top two tricks are missing. Unfortunately the 5 bid doesn't quite say that. It's therefore better to ask RKCB and accept the occasional loss of AK in around 5% of the hands, then to put the pressure on North to accept with the rest the other 95% of hands.
April 20, 2017
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And 20 hcp is not even in the original range (21-22hcp).
April 17, 2017
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Doug, thanks for that. What tools did you use?
April 17, 2017
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E likely 6-4 here, especially if expert. In that case passing has to be negative expectation.
April 16, 2017
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What if E's Heart card is K or Q?
April 16, 2017
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Do people here play that X is penalty? Otherwise I honestly can't understand how 4 can be a better bid than X.
April 14, 2017
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Perhaps the correct rule with a tramp stack would be to play a forcing game if you hold a side suit of your own that can be established?
Sept. 27, 2016
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Can S make 4 if W underleads A and E returns ?
June 17, 2016
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