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All comments by Phillip Martin
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I have played 5NT that way. But it's not a lock partner has the club ace. I don't know how to find out everything.
Feb. 7
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If partner is on the same page with the 3 bid (and, for what it's worth, I would not be) and is at all interested in slam missing the ace, king, and jack of trumps, I don't see how it can be a bad spot.
Feb. 4
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Phil, GIB is great at playing unnecessarily high cards. I recently had this position:


A10
xx
x

Jxx
KQ



I was in my hand. Hearts were trump. The opponents had 2 hearts left, including the jack. RHO had K10 left, and LHO was void in spades. Obviously all I could do was crossruff for four tricks. I led a spade, LHO pitched a club, and I ruffed with the 10, dropping the K. “Oh, no!” I thought. “I miscounted the spades. I should have ruffed with the ace.” If hearts were 1-1, I could recover by cashing the heart ace, but I would hold myself to three tricks if they weren't. I reviewed the play and finally realized I hadn't miscounted the spades. East had dropped the king because his partner had 2 trumps and it couldn't cost. I played a diamond off dummy and he discarded the 10, probably grinning at me if computers can do that. The K, giving your opponent a losing option, is a great play that few humans would find.
Feb. 4
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At trick one, there is no reason to believe that you are thinking about your play to trick one. There isn’t even any reason to believe you have a choice at trick one. You could have a singleton. As long as you consistently think about the whole hand before playing to trick one, as you should, UI isn’t an issue.
Feb. 2
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3 should deny four hearts. If a hand is good enough to bid 3, it’s good enough to reverse.
Feb. 2
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Count has the advantage of precision. 3rd hand knows how many cards he has in the suit led, and, if the card can be read unambiguously, 1st hand will learn that information. Attitude is more subjective. 3rd hand may not be sure how he wants the defense to go, and 1st hand, even if the signal is unambiguous, may misinterpet the reason for his partner's request. That argues for count. On the other hand, attitude has the potential to convey more information, since 3rd hand takes his entire hand into account, not just his holding in the suit led, in determining what to signal. Further, the information it conveys–such as whether an active or passive defense is called for–may be more useful. In addition, attitude has an advantage not specifically tied to information: It forces 3rd hand to think about how the defense should go. He can give a count signal without thinking. He must do some analysis to determine what attitude signal to give, so it forces him to think about the things he should be thinking about.
Feb. 1
Phillip Martin edited this comment Feb. 1
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I would have bid 2 rather then 2. Having failed to do that, I can't bid on now. Partner is captain and didn't ask my opinion.
Jan. 31
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“Solve the problem at the table by considering all possible cases and their respective probabilities” comes closest. But considering their respective probabilities is usually unnecessary. Simply count the layouts where one play works over another and consider respective probabilities only to break ties. For example, if play A works in 5 cases and B works in 4, pick A. If both work in 5 cases, then pick the one that caters to likelier breaks.
Jan. 31
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Yes, the diamond return breaks up the guard squeeze. But you can ruff a diamond, isolating the diamond threat in one hand or the other, and execute the appropriate squeeze to take the rest. (Never mind. I see Michael commented as I was writing this.)

As for hopping with the diamond ace, that's possibly the right play. But it isn't 100% the J was singleton. Nor is it 100% that the K is offside. And trumps don't have to be 4-1. Rightly or wrongly, I wasn't willing to give up on an overtrick betting on that parlay.
Jan. 30
Phillip Martin edited this comment Jan. 30
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Indeed. It was matchpoints. I've added that detail.
Jan. 30
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So East's argument is that he assumed from the 3 bid that North must hold some of the high cards he was looking at?
Jan. 29
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Partner's having five spades does not render his knowledge of whether you are raising on three or four useless. Further, the support double is not limited. So it can be used on hands too good for a single raise that would be awkward to bid otherwise.
Jan. 29
Phillip Martin edited this comment Jan. 29
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I did bid 3NT and was curious how much company I would have. I caught partner with A9xx 8xxx Q1098 Q and, with a little help from the defense, made it. In retrospect, I think it was a poor bid.
Jan. 29
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I haven't no idea how to answer this poll. The question is “what are your rules,” yet none of the answers is a rule.
Jan. 26
Phillip Martin edited this comment Jan. 26
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In doing the simulation, you must also be careful to deal partner a pass. If you include hands where he would have overcalled in one minor or the other, you skew your results.
Jan. 26
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Thinking about what to do is not in itself a problem. In fact, it's usually a good idea.
Jan. 18
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I've never understood this argument. If I'm your partner, I trust you to do what you think is right. Why would I want to play with someone who does what he thinks is wrong just to humor me?
Jan. 16
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WIth the tools available today, t's very easy. You can find courses on Coursera or Udemy. Here is one I took some time ago. Neural networks is only one section of the course, so it may be better to find a course dedicated to the subject. But this course does happen to be quite a good overview of neural networks and other machine learning techniques. https://www.udemy.com/course/data-science-and-machine-learning-with-python-hands-on/
Jan. 16
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Lots of agreements are possible, but I believe one agreement you should avoid is playing double shows a singleton in the bid suit. Double should show some hand type where there is a chance partner will choose to pass it. Similarly, pass should show some hand type where there is a chance partner will want to double.
Jan. 16
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Estimating the IMP expectation is hard enough. Now you want me to estimate the area under the normal density function as well? If the match wasn't infinitely long to start with, it will be now.
Jan. 13
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