You are ignoring the author of this comment. Click to temporarily show the comment.
My assumption that East had the AK was a blind spot. I was assuming West had the A, which of course he needn't have.
Dec. 3, 2019
You are ignoring the author of this comment. Click to temporarily show the comment.
The last multiplicand in each of your products should be 1, 1, 1, and 2–not 6, 6, 6, and 4. The club holding is known to be QJ or stiff honor.
Dec. 2, 2019
You are ignoring the author of this comment. Click to temporarily show the comment.
It's pretty close, but I believe the finesse is a slight favorite. If we assume East has AK, he is a 15 to 6 favorite to have four hearts rather than three. He is also more likely to have four diamonds than to have three (the exact odds depending on what assumption you make about the 10). So the 4342 and 4432 shapes occur less likely than the other two shapes. They occur often enough that the finesse is not 2-to-1 as restricted choice would indicate, but it is still odds on.
Dec. 2, 2019
You are ignoring the author of this comment. Click to temporarily show the comment.
I bid 2 the first time. This time, I think I'll pass.
Dec. 2, 2019
You are ignoring the author of this comment. Click to temporarily show the comment.
The worst case holding for standard carding is 32 doubleton. You are just as likely to hold the two lowest cards as to hold the two highest cards, so readability does not make one method any better than the other. What does matter is the frequency with which you can't play the proper signal because doing so would cost a trick. In standard carding, you lose when your high card might be a winner; in upside-down carding, you lose when your low card might block the suit.
Dec. 2, 2019
You are ignoring the author of this comment. Click to temporarily show the comment.
How does playing the jack help? The one thing partner will know for sure is you don't have a doubleton. It's either a singleton, which seems unlikely, or jack third. So the jack in fact guarantees partner will go wrong. Your only chance is to play the eight and hope partner concludes J8 doubleton is more likely than whatever else there is for him to play for.
Dec. 1, 2019
Phillip Martin edited this comment Dec. 1, 2019
You are ignoring the author of this comment. Click to temporarily show the comment.
No, it's not count; it's attitude. With four (as with three), you should discourage. If you encourage, partner will assume you are ruffing the third round. So the eight could be from 8654.
Dec. 1, 2019
You are ignoring the author of this comment. Click to temporarily show the comment.
They have eight clubs (since partner should have 3 for his double); we have eight or nine spades. So total tricks should be 16 or 17. I'm not bidding 3 over 3.
Nov. 27, 2019
You are ignoring the author of this comment. Click to temporarily show the comment.
Thanks, Charles. Reformulating the question that way not only solves the time problem, it also avoids the issue of how you obtained the information. If we ask “from the set of all the two-children families who have a boy named Dylan, etc.,” it is clear that knowing the name affect the probability, whereas it might or might not (depending on how you obtained the information) as the problem was originally stated. Now I'm going to have to think about this type of rewording in the context of the Sleeping Beauty problem. Maybe I can finally get a handle on it.
Nov. 26, 2019
You are ignoring the author of this comment. Click to temporarily show the comment.
I'm sure you could see an advantage to playing in diamonds if you worked at it. How about opposite x AJx KQJxxx KJx? Or, if partner is the aggressive sort, x Ax KQJxxx Kxxx?
Nov. 24, 2019
You are ignoring the author of this comment. Click to temporarily show the comment.
1/2, 1/3, 13/27, ~1/2 (I'm ignoring the remark about P(Dylan) being 1/2. Easier just to say that the probability is small. The answer approaches 1/2 as the probability of the imposed condition approaches 0.)
Nov. 23, 2019
You are ignoring the author of this comment. Click to temporarily show the comment.
Partner is supposed to be 3-suited with short spades and with clubs his longest or equal-longest suit. My doubleton spade suggests he doesn't have that. I suspect the auction didn't go as he had hoped. Still, whatever he has, I don't think he would double with a stiff diamond. So a cautious 2 seems unnecessary. I"ll go ahead and bid 2.
Nov. 21, 2019
You are ignoring the author of this comment. Click to temporarily show the comment.
It's not just that it's an ace; it's the fact that it's a spade as well. Roger Stern once asserted that he would happily play rubber bridge against anyone if he were guaranteed to be dealt the space deuce on every hand.
Nov. 20, 2019
You are ignoring the author of this comment. Click to temporarily show the comment.
Actually, there are 31 possible bids.
Nov. 20, 2019
You are ignoring the author of this comment. Click to temporarily show the comment.
I disagree with both of you. It's not a take-out double, but doubling isn't silly.
Nov. 19, 2019
You are ignoring the author of this comment. Click to temporarily show the comment.
At total points, giving the opponents an ace would be a handicap that would be almost impossible to overcome. So I choose the second option. Besides, it sounds like a good opportunity to psyche a cue-bid, then laugh at the opponents when they switch the king so that it's onside.
Nov. 19, 2019
You are ignoring the author of this comment. Click to temporarily show the comment.
I think your partner should have found the spade lead. It's simply more likely to work than a heart. One way to think about it is this: It is likely declarer can find nine tricks without attacking spades. So the spade ace is not an entry. The only way it can be a working asset is if spades is your source of tricks. And it is unlikely you have enough extra strength that you can defeat this contract unless all your assets are working.
Nov. 18, 2019
You are ignoring the author of this comment. Click to temporarily show the comment.
By contrast, I'm leading the spade jack in an attempt to take the tricks due me. I'm not trying to steal anything.
Nov. 16, 2019
You are ignoring the author of this comment. Click to temporarily show the comment.
I voted for both. Actually I think it's forcing, but since you chose to use a multiple-answer poll, giving us the option of voting for both, I couldn't resist.
Nov. 15, 2019
You are ignoring the author of this comment. Click to temporarily show the comment.
I think it's fairly standard for the first discard in the suit led to clarify the count.
Nov. 11, 2019
.

Bottom Home Top