Join Bridge Winners
All comments by Wayne Burrows
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I think your strongest option AQTx is at best marginal.
Oct. 8
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Sorry Alan I have updated again. Never trust my calculations at 2:30am.
Oct. 8
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My editing skills are:

1. better at 730am than 230am
2. better when I am not already late to pick up my wife - the first edit not at 230am
Oct. 8
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What reason would hand dealing make hands with one cards of every suit “rather higher” than the theoretical calculation without bias? I am sure hand dealing is biased but I am not sure why it would be biased in that direction.
Oct. 8
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I will have to check in the morning I am not getting out of bed again.
Oct. 8
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There are 4^13 = 67108864 hands with one card of each rank.

There are 52 choose 13 = 635013559600 total 13 card hands.

The probability of one card of each rank is therefore 0.000105681 which is about 1 in 9462 hands.
Oct. 8
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I think you are right. I actually had a formula but somehow I didn't copy it into that cell in the spreadsheet and I am not sure now where 1/12 came from - just that somehow I didn't put the formula there. The formula is:

14-n choose n-1 divided by 13 choose n

14-n gives the number of cards greater than n. We need to choose n-1 of those for a suit of length n. The probability is then calculated by dividing by the number of ways of choosing n cards from all thirteen in the suit.
Oct. 8
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The probabilities of a given number of hits for each distribution.

(Corrected I hope they are right now - third attempt)


4333 0.105361303 0.001193617 0.020957934 0.13773749 0.401631993 0.438478965
4432 0.215511756 0.000833362 0.016347785 0.119901409 0.389638561 0.473278883
4441 0.029932188 0.000363649 0.009773064 0.091732325 0.366181143 0.531949819
5332 0.155168465 0.000557021 0.012875154 0.10690277 0.381704549 0.497960506
5422 0.10579668 0.000388902 0.009789689 0.090161669 0.362178559 0.537481181
5431 0.129307054 0.000243064 0.007382488 0.079162014 0.353521287 0.559691147
5440 0.012433371 0.002757671 0.052756867 0.319779687 0.624705775 0
5521 0.031739004 0.00011343 0.004075372 0.05369803 0.306497533 0.635615636
5530 0.008952027 0.001843235 0.04170977 0.299162645 0.657284351 0
6322 0.056424896 0.000148539 0.006660916 0.07828327 0.355490587 0.559416687
6331 0.034481881 9.28369E-05 0.004645825 0.067135414 0.345592846 0.582533079
6421 0.047020747 6.4817E-05 0.003377045 0.053052753 0.314739522 0.628765863
6430 0.013262262 0.001053277 0.040868402 0.307877258 0.650201063 0
6511 0.007053112 1.8905E-05 0.001188313 0.025516214 0.229709298 0.74356727
6520 0.006510565 0.000491529 0.021802834 0.239302028 0.738403608 0
6610 0.000723396 8.19215E-05 0.005839836 0.130265706 0.863812537 0
7222 0.005129536 1.48539E-05 0.003871565 0.061184832 0.331573941 0.603354808
7321 0.018808299 9.28369E-06 0.002468003 0.050479145 0.318756744 0.628286825
7330 0.002652452 0.00015086 0.038098612 0.312044834 0.649705694 0
7411 0.003918396 4.05107E-06 0.001106351 0.029706342 0.263009635 0.706173621
7420 0.003616981 0.000105328 0.026816558 0.271808477 0.701269638 0
7510 0.001085094 3.07206E-05 0.008151925 0.162508417 0.829308937 0
7600 5.56459E-05 0.000133123 0.036447042 0.963419836 0 0
8221 0.001923576 0 0.001820665 0.041875284 0.295402822 0.660901229
8311 0.001175519 0 0.001137915 0.032089213 0.278561675 0.688211197
8320 0.001085094 0 0.029585799 0.286982249 0.683431953 0
8410 0.000452123 0 0.012910167 0.218934911 0.768154922 0
8500 3.13008E-05 0 0.097902098 0.902097902 0 0
9211 0.000178109 0 0.000910332 0.026854802 0.251251707 0.720983159
9220 8.22041E-05 0 0.023668639 0.26035503 0.715976331 0
9310 0.000100472 0 0.014792899 0.23964497 0.74556213 0
9400 9.66074E-06 0 0.167832168 0.832167832 0 0
10111 3.95798E-06 0 0.000455166 0.016385981 0.196631771 0.786527082
10210 1.09605E-05 0 0.01183432 0.207100592 0.781065089 0
10300 1.54572E-06 0 0.192307692 0.807692308 0 0
11110 2.49103E-07 0 0.00591716 0.142011834 0.852071006 0
11200 1.14971E-07 0 0.153846154 0.846153846 0 0
12100 3.19363E-09 0 0.076923077 0.923076923 0 0
13000 6.29908E-12 0 1 0 0 0
1 0.00056272 0.012841576 0.106381877 0.380222953 0.494935986
[\code]
Oct. 8
Wayne Burrows edited this comment Oct. 8
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I know of other players who would prefer to sit facing a wall as they get distracted when facing other tables.
Oct. 2
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RFID could be used for playing cards and bidding cards. This would capture all bids made and cards played and record timing of all actions.

For far too long we have thrown away information in this game. Which could be used for analyse performance and detect irregularities.

In competitive chess scorecards are kept and signed for each game. This could also be useful. Perhaps it would be a way for players to annotate the bidding (and play) with their agreements. Such information could be used to check for anomalies in the bidding and play that might point to additional exchanges of information.
Oct. 1
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In a rock paper scissors sort of way.
Sept. 29
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Do you need to alert that?
Sept. 28
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It also appears declarer failed to factor in the possibility of 4=2=5=2. The favourable vulnerability for NS makes the 4S bid (and the 1S bid) a very wide range. Dismissing 4S as offbeat is possibly not giving south enough credit and overstating the accuracy of the club finesse.
Sept. 28
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If they are not published then they are easily calculated. I have a one line formula in a spreadsheet that will calculate an IMP score based on a butler datum.

With this much data there should be a better measures of performance, although having said that we throw away so much data to our detriment.
Sept. 28
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The Butler datums have Meckstroth and Rodwell and Weinstein and Levin only playing 287 boards which is one short of a multiple of 16. Does anyone know what happened to the other board? Was one pulled or a substitute board played?

I also know that in the New Zealand Morocco match there were eight replacement boards after Morocco arrived 38 minutes late. Does anyone know of any other instances where this or similar occurred?

I want to try and do some analysis of the scores and players and so want to make sure the data is as clean as possible.
Sept. 26
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I can't believe that there is a 20% vote for a trump lead.
Sept. 26
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Even if 2 is a one round force then 3 is game forcing. With an invitational hand with six hearts then we can just bid 3 a round earlier.
Sept. 26
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Not everyone plays Bridge World Standard.
Sept. 26
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Unfortunately the only way you can test the hypothesis that partner will have all the key cards when a they bid a slam and you have the trump queen which they have not asked about is to look at all of the other hands where this has happened in your partnership. I say unfortunately because generally that information is not available.
Sept. 24
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Richard that holding occurred to me too. However on this hand south has the T so it is not possible.
Sept. 24
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