All comments by Wayne Burrows
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If that is the only strategy then that seems reasonable. I am most interested in the approximately 30% of the time that partner has A and A and not A and we miss a grand.
Dec. 14, 2019
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It seems we need a different set of priorities for cue bids that start at the five-level. At lower levels it is common to bid controls up-the-line. At this level, as you say all tries are flawed including the 5 up-the-line cue.
Dec. 14, 2019
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Probabilities do not work like that Paul. The probability is not proportional to the absolute number of cards partner has in a suit.

Rather it is loosely dependent on the relative number of cards your partner has compared with the number that the opponents have.

Obviously, there is also a dependency on the overall strength of partner's hand.

As declarer, we do this all of the time. If we find out that a key suit breaks 4=2 we reason that the key card is 4:2 on with the four card suit and we think we are unlucky when we finesse to a doubleton jack for example. Exactly the same principle applies to partner's cards and can be applied here in the bidding or in the play.

Here is some simulation data assuming partner is 4063.

With no strength information included partner has:

A 5792/10000 (4/7 = 0.571429)
A 4613/10000 (6/13 = 0.461538)
A 3379/10000 (3/9 = 0.333333)

All numbers will go up if we impose a minimum strength requirement say 10 hcp on opener.

A 7709/10000
A 6488/10000
A 5035/10000

They remain roughly in the proportion 4/7:6/13:3/9. The relative probability of the A drops and the A rises.
Dec. 14, 2019
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I think this strategy is against the odds. It might depend on how many aces partner shows and how many spades 1 showed.

If 4 showed four spades then a priori (ignoring strength considerations for now) partner is 4:3 on for the A.

Similarly, on the other hand, if partner has six diamonds then a priori is 6:7 against for the A.

When partner has one ace it is most likely to be the sA. If partner has two aces then around 30% of the time it will not include the A.
Dec. 14, 2019
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Seriously, partner makes a penalty double, I have values and an ordinary distribution, 5-4-3-1 is a very common shape, what reason can I have to pull this double?
Dec. 14, 2019
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It is unclear to me that the slow pass suggests leaving the double in. A slow double might suggest that the player had an alternative action to pass, which in turn might suggest pulling now is better.
Dec. 13, 2019
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Don't ask “A from AK”. Reword the question to something more generic but which “A from AK” or not would be an expected answer. “Leads and carding?” should do but a slightly more pointed question about honour leads would definitely do without giving anything away.
Dec. 12, 2019
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I agree Steve. It appears the law needs a specific exception to be made.

“Unless the Regulating Authority provides otherwise a player may consult his opponent’s system card:
(i) prior to the commencement of the auction,
(ii) during the Clarification Period,
(iii) during the auction and during the play but only at his turn to call or play, and
(iv) following an opponent’s request for an explanation, pursuant to Law 20F, for the purpose of correctly explaining the significance of his partner’s call or play.” Law 40B2c
Dec. 12, 2019
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I doubt you could reasonably call this an “attempt to pass”.
Dec. 12, 2019
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Thanks I forgot to mention that.
Dec. 11, 2019
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Of course but that does not help when the opposition bump the bidding up a level.
Dec. 10, 2019
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Sure but not the conditions of this problem.
Dec. 10, 2019
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It is certainly an advantage of the Mexican 2 or 2 opening.
Dec. 10, 2019
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Put your two diamonds in north and take away two spades

A QJ9x Txx QJ9xx

Put the two spades in east and take away two clubs

xxxx xx AKxxxx x

Give the two clubs to you and leave south's hand the same.

KT9x AKTxx x Kxx

How do you or your partner bid differently?
Dec. 10, 2019
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That is the question Bo. What would you do differently in the auction with ♠KT97 ♥AKT32 ♦3 ♣KJT?
Dec. 10, 2019
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Bo that hand exists. The other players hands will be different for sure but you could have that hand.
Dec. 10, 2019
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I would prefer to try and establish the facts and then impose a penalty on both sides.
Dec. 9, 2019
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Debbie that must be an American thing (and maybe some European players who play in America). Sadly I do not get to play in the US very often and never in Europe.

But I have played APBF events, including the Mixed Teams in Singapore this year. I think every team had good system cards and pretty much all sat down and looked through our cards before the match.

The only problem I recall we had was that one team had forenames on their system cards and surnames on the lineups which were submitted electronically online, or vice versa, so we did not know who we were playing until we sat down at the table.
Dec. 9, 2019
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“ I will often have the convention card open throughout the auction and follow the auction. I do not see this as a problem.”

It is contrary to the laws. It would be better to change the laws than violate them if it is not a problem.

I agree it is worse to pick up and examine the card after your LHO has made a bid when it is your partner's turn to call.
Dec. 9, 2019
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Precisely Joe.

Players are required to answer questions and to provide a system card*. Please just do that and don't make those things difficult.

You are not entitled to know why I am asking a question. That might tip off my hand and it might give UI to partner if I have to explain.

I get to decide what my problems are on the hand and I get to decide what information I lawfully seek to help me answer those questions.

*Law 40B(2)(a)(ii) “The Regulating Authority:

(ii) may prescribe a System Card”

I am not sure how this Americanism “Convention Card” has crept in.
Dec. 9, 2019
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