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what are the odds

We were having a discussion and the following question was raised:

In a major suit contract, If you have 22 high card points between two hands, what percentage of the time will you make ten tricks or more,, if there are no voids in the hands and the opener has no more than six cards in the suit that was opened.

 

stipulations are that responding hand must be at least six high card points and opener does not have over 16 high card points

My guess was that the answer would be less than 10% of the time. 

Can anyone do a simulation over 1000 hands?

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